{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e83e9aa-c91e-4f33-adda-645529570338", "symbol": "LB", "name": "Laurentian Bank of Canada", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.959, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.709, "architecture_energy": 72.113, "architecture_maturity": 10.695, "architecture_confidence": 70.4, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.29, "rotation_up": 73.49, "upward_expansion": 91.82, "deceleration": 43.19, "rotation_down": 11.27, "downward_expansion": 16.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.254667, 40.185183, 40.080987, 40.01781 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.25, "trend_reference": 39.903409, "distance_from_trend": 0.008686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.177438, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.446063, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018068, "excess_performance": -0.102354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008686, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030547, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379491, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025077, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067979, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018068, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.906026, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 476700, "relative_activity": 0.849468, "balance": 0.906026, "dry_up": 1.31189, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00393, "annualized_volatility": 0.024159, "from_high_reference": -0.002478, "from_low_reference": 0.416422 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.903409, "fair_value_reference": 29.177438, "structural_low": 39.555455, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.001626, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.022908, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.20543, "worst_return": -0.18161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008784, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.043905, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.242627, "worst_return": -0.392599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002768, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002427, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.329943, "worst_return": -0.349803, "sufficient": 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"up", "direction": 71.694547, "energy": 65.734215, "activity_lines": [ 40.103146, 40.000134, 39.977161, 39.909206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.18, "volume": 756700, "typical_volume": 610845.0, "trend": 39.815481, "fair_value": 29.057768, "relative_strength": -0.296511, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.141165, "energy": 71.339966, "activity_lines": [ 40.149488, 40.044857, 40.000116, 39.9351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.290001, "volume": 661300, "typical_volume": 595565.0, "trend": 39.846222, "fair_value": 29.094308, "relative_strength": -0.412178, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.305141, "energy": 76.799919, "activity_lines": [ 40.21266, 40.102731, 40.031373, 39.965715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.279999, "volume": 1050100, "typical_volume": 609115.0, "trend": 39.876304, "fair_value": 29.137752, "relative_strength": -0.127019, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.016976, "energy": 79.596054, "activity_lines": [ 40.244667, 40.150119, 40.059028, 39.9937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.25, "volume": 476700, "typical_volume": 561175.0, "trend": 39.903409, "fair_value": 29.177438, "relative_strength": -3.446063, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.708968, "energy": 72.112795, "activity_lines": [ 40.254667, 40.185183, 40.080987, 40.01781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }