{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e8784a2-3a76-4bcf-a7b4-d15c6c3e0adb", "symbol": "002521", "name": "Qifeng New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.948, "architecture_energy": 41.962, "architecture_maturity": 96.667, "architecture_confidence": 84.278, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.92, "rotation_up": 24.8, "upward_expansion": 6.13, "deceleration": 58.73, "rotation_down": 43.69, "downward_expansion": 74.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.78, 6.805818, 7.1303, 7.388267 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.85, "trend_reference": 7.709044, "distance_from_trend": -0.111433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.568987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200606, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.443086, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.17781, "excess_performance": -0.18521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200606, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150657, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055243, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17781, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20156392, "relative_activity": 0.813735, "balance": 0.545707, "dry_up": 1.131, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079056, "annualized_volatility": 0.310154, "from_high_reference": -0.312798, "from_low_reference": 0.07874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.709044, "fair_value_reference": 8.568987, "structural_low": 6.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.009132, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.009346, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.099702, "worst_return": -0.172945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008039, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.000715, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.117365, "worst_return": -0.172886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023379, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.179539, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.058234, "worst_return": -0.231828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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7.060932, 7.45426, 7.668051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.44, "volume": 37868599, "typical_volume": 25671810.55, "trend": 7.849695, "fair_value": 8.551599, "relative_strength": -23.186578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.941945, "energy": 72.014393, "activity_lines": [ 6.698667, 6.908244, 7.333377, 7.572909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.89, "volume": 33657418, "typical_volume": 25927417.15, "trend": 7.800344, "fair_value": 8.557811, "relative_strength": -17.450611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.613841, "energy": 48.088074, "activity_lines": [ 6.749333, 6.866073, 7.264543, 7.510993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.8, "volume": 20378027, "typical_volume": 26151974.15, "trend": 7.751905, "fair_value": 8.563268, "relative_strength": -16.576453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.347288, "energy": 47.406909, "activity_lines": [ 6.768667, 6.822545, 7.192373, 7.446455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.85, "volume": 20156392, "typical_volume": 24770222.15, "trend": 7.709044, "fair_value": 8.568987, "relative_strength": -19.443086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.948123, "energy": 41.961535, "activity_lines": [ 6.78, 6.805818, 7.1303, 7.388267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }