{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e8a125f-b31e-45c9-b46e-3955d0b08b8c", "symbol": "HGRU11", "name": "Patria Renda Urbana - Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 76.418, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -60.092, "architecture_energy": 74.332, "architecture_maturity": 8.959, "architecture_confidence": 79.15, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.36, "rotation_up": 16.18, "upward_expansion": 23.24, "deceleration": 43.06, "rotation_down": 75.94, "downward_expansion": 62.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 123.088002, 125.312833, 126.872603, 127.17072 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 119.25, "trend_reference": 127.130938, "distance_from_trend": -0.061991, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.771929, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.575723, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040344, "excess_performance": 0.016704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040344, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.212908, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 310795, "relative_activity": 2.111121, "balance": 0.212908, "dry_up": 1.761731, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025147, "annualized_volatility": 0.091781, "from_high_reference": -0.095703, "from_low_reference": 0.058781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.130938, "fair_value_reference": 112.771929, "structural_low": 118.690002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009951, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00398, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.03357, "worst_return": -0.013668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.008437, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.082484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008437, "worst_return": 0.008437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.058613, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.097388, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.058613, "worst_return": -0.058613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 128.918621, 128.777616, 128.745413, 128.11848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 125.436673, "volume": 221319, "typical_volume": 134118.95, "trend": 127.038506, "fair_value": 112.35271, "relative_strength": -4.63636, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.932582, "energy": 5.716477, "activity_lines": [ 127.751226, 128.1616, 128.448452, 128.026182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.632905, "volume": 229413, "typical_volume": 133497.0, "trend": 127.153813, "fair_value": 112.498332, "relative_strength": -5.053602, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.771083, "energy": 33.568783, "activity_lines": [ 126.489344, 127.471473, 128.088457, 127.870982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 124.285601, "volume": 275907, "typical_volume": 139309.2, "trend": 127.235853, "fair_value": 112.652436, "relative_strength": -7.007511, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.407066, "energy": 47.785741, "activity_lines": [ 125.439977, 126.806277, 127.711223, 127.685936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.25, "volume": 310795, "typical_volume": 147218.0, "trend": 127.130938, "fair_value": 112.771929, "relative_strength": -7.575723, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -60.092333, "energy": 74.332119, "activity_lines": [ 123.088002, 125.312833, 126.872603, 127.17072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }