{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e906aad-7588-4ec5-bab2-3b12a5c8e494", "symbol": "INDO", "name": "Amundi MSCI Indonesia UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.369, "architecture_energy": 29.394, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.283, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.53, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 22.38, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 29.44, "downward_expansion": 61.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.789332, 71.70909, 73.188857, 77.490365 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 74.059998, "trend_reference": 84.557, "distance_from_trend": -0.124141, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 117.198974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.368083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.0047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276192, "excess_performance": -0.447084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135704, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.368083, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024953, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.397075, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13215, "relative_activity": 0.907231, "balance": 0.397075, "dry_up": 1.515965, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057708, "annualized_volatility": 0.326665, "from_high_reference": -0.356727, "from_low_reference": 0.179863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.557, "fair_value_reference": 117.198974, "structural_low": 62.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.025056, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.005464, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.099282, "worst_return": -0.229187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050766, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.04497, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.188368, "worst_return": -0.230618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033015, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.086437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240032, "worst_return": -0.150593, "sufficient": true }, 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"energy": 51.88079, "activity_lines": [ 70.992, 70.457818, 74.783333, 80.251634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.269997, "volume": 21519, "typical_volume": 14422.65, "trend": 87.035333, "fair_value": 118.059808, "relative_strength": -34.770775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.010365, "energy": 47.414516, "activity_lines": [ 71.449999, 70.712545, 74.101381, 79.220946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.93, "volume": 30729, "typical_volume": 15445.75, "trend": 85.778666, "fair_value": 117.618974, "relative_strength": -34.746082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.096339, "energy": 39.848464, "activity_lines": [ 71.825999, 71.01509, 73.498286, 78.246408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.059998, "volume": 13215, "typical_volume": 14566.3, "trend": 84.557, "fair_value": 117.198974, "relative_strength": -34.0047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.368615, "energy": 29.393829, "activity_lines": [ 72.789332, 71.70909, 73.188857, 77.490365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }