{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e91d034-43e2-4ca2-9dbc-7dda5c530cad", "symbol": "FENC", "name": "Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.652, "architecture_energy": 46.11, "architecture_maturity": 65.9, "architecture_confidence": 71.675, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.53, "rotation_up": 48.93, "upward_expansion": 76.92, "deceleration": 70.18, "rotation_down": 25.12, "downward_expansion": 5.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.507667, 10.358182, 9.655762, 9.066129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.575, "trend_reference": 8.4775, "distance_from_trend": 0.365379, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.707372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.67168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.476403, "excess_performance": 0.288949, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.365379, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.501809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.58683, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.206717, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.48557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.476403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.673259, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 783907, "relative_activity": 0.674731, "balance": 2.673259, "dry_up": 0.617353, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114735, "annualized_volatility": 0.800407, "from_high_reference": -0.00729, "from_low_reference": 1.048673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.4775, "fair_value_reference": 7.707372, "structural_low": 5.65, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.01601, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.032825, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.229885, "worst_return": -0.566632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.094554, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.211679, "worst_return": -0.51773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.11527, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.202722, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.445255, "worst_return": -0.455437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.349935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.49, "volume": 750813, "typical_volume": 1183652.3, "trend": 8.129667, "fair_value": 7.651506, "relative_strength": 9.0602, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.027451, "energy": 70.069228, "activity_lines": [ 10.362, 9.931273, 8.89081, 8.508538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.5, "volume": 963272, "typical_volume": 1197586.65, "trend": 8.224333, "fair_value": 7.66625, "relative_strength": 13.902511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.835334, "energy": 73.822485, "activity_lines": [ 10.510667, 10.103818, 9.10581, 8.661462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.99, "volume": 645276, "typical_volume": 1191832.25, "trend": 8.287667, "fair_value": 7.677724, "relative_strength": 10.238996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.002789, "energy": 49.389872, "activity_lines": [ 10.389333, 10.118727, 9.262667, 8.775376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.57, "volume": 476526, "typical_volume": 1189824.2, "trend": 8.350667, "fair_value": 7.687596, "relative_strength": 5.072453, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.403178, "energy": 37.850718, "activity_lines": [ 10.066, 10.052909, 9.368619, 8.858108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.575, "volume": 783907, "typical_volume": 1161806.75, "trend": 8.4775, "fair_value": 7.707372, "relative_strength": 20.67168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.651862, "energy": 46.109563, "activity_lines": [ 10.507667, 10.358182, 9.655762, 9.066129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }