{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e92af45-d65b-4dc7-8cac-0ad9036a9623", "symbol": "ELTEL", "name": "Eltel AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.731, "architecture_energy": 31.769, "architecture_maturity": 52.887, "architecture_confidence": 61.226, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.79, "rotation_up": 39.4, "upward_expansion": 65.63, "deceleration": 64.45, "rotation_down": 25.38, "downward_expansion": 15.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.74, 12.742727, 12.194048, 11.446903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.75, "trend_reference": 10.57, "distance_from_trend": 0.206244, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.204359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.554052, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.944185, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.442308, "excess_performance": 0.380813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.206244, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.554052, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170301, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.149442, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093189, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.442308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.328397, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284373, "relative_activity": 1.094416, "balance": 1.328397, "dry_up": 0.931756, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107994, "annualized_volatility": 0.474455, "from_high_reference": -0.111498, "from_low_reference": 0.589776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.57, "fair_value_reference": 8.204359, "structural_low": 8.08, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045464, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.055971, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137363, "worst_return": -0.13082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.109339, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.180035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.298462, "worst_return": -0.140594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085149, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.217376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.592308, "worst_return": -0.179954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.078633, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.119352, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.36, "worst_return": -0.202733, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046729, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078378, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112637, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.226303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018223, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097852, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.106061, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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12.561818, 11.504095, 10.829505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.05, "volume": 244619, "typical_volume": 247133.65, "trend": 10.204667, "fair_value": 8.103846, "relative_strength": 14.262493, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.342938, "energy": 42.53451, "activity_lines": [ 12.576667, 12.522727, 11.64281, 10.954688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.55, "volume": 309232, "typical_volume": 255600.3, "trend": 10.315, "fair_value": 8.134679, "relative_strength": 17.128701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.187769, "energy": 35.151279, "activity_lines": [ 12.496667, 12.551818, 11.815762, 11.106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.3, "volume": 130205, "typical_volume": 255534.35, "trend": 10.451, "fair_value": 8.170962, "relative_strength": 22.229282, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.342847, "energy": 38.542593, "activity_lines": [ 12.75, 12.712727, 12.042762, 11.298581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.75, "volume": 284373, "typical_volume": 259839.85, "trend": 10.57, "fair_value": 8.204359, "relative_strength": 14.944185, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.731118, "energy": 31.768806, "activity_lines": [ 12.74, 12.742727, 12.194048, 11.446903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }