{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e935fc0-8812-4982-98d9-8765c769227e", "symbol": "002037", "name": "Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.803, "architecture_energy": 33.301, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.73, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.91, "rotation_up": 30.03, "upward_expansion": 20.3, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 38.59, "downward_expansion": 70.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.684, 6.531636, 6.961619, 7.374581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.69, "trend_reference": 7.992333, "distance_from_trend": -0.037828, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.311218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074745, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.179936, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.209661, "excess_performance": -0.217061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037828, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119205, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074745, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096209, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209661, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.539409, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77702542, "relative_activity": 2.283054, "balance": 0.539409, "dry_up": 1.496746, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080024, "annualized_volatility": 0.414547, "from_high_reference": -0.40295, "from_low_reference": 0.353873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.992333, "fair_value_reference": 8.311218, "structural_low": 5.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.045142, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.017977, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.684971, "worst_return": -0.172989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.140334, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.072489, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.348041, "worst_return": -0.268421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.096829, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.174519, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.543165, "worst_return": -0.396963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-43.172256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.399532, "energy": 92.14277, "activity_lines": [ 6.338667, 6.745636, 7.367095, 7.81271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.01, "volume": 34110278, "typical_volume": 30690521.45, "trend": 8.281333, "fair_value": 8.36359, "relative_strength": -37.480479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.164204, "energy": 89.149661, "activity_lines": [ 6.185333, 6.535091, 7.195476, 7.659054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.84, "volume": 37942041, "typical_volume": 30542731.25, "trend": 8.155333, "fair_value": 8.340833, "relative_strength": -38.769062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.674424, "energy": 83.751877, "activity_lines": [ 6.038, 6.342182, 7.022714, 7.501548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.55, "volume": 54008990, "typical_volume": 31831988.05, "trend": 8.052667, "fair_value": 8.322564, "relative_strength": -28.665027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.560035, "energy": 64.589888, "activity_lines": [ 6.179333, 6.321273, 6.932524, 7.397978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.69, "volume": 77702542, "typical_volume": 34034479.0, "trend": 7.992333, "fair_value": 8.311218, "relative_strength": -19.179936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.802942, "energy": 33.301392, "activity_lines": [ 6.684, 6.531636, 6.961619, 7.374581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }