{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e939af3-d1b4-4409-93a6-c094ebd7ec87", "symbol": "NXPI", "name": "NXP Semiconductors NV", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.577, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.548, "architecture_energy": 32.405, "architecture_maturity": 45.254, "architecture_confidence": 67.329, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.74, "rotation_up": 14.16, "upward_expansion": 21.04, "deceleration": 67.03, "rotation_down": 60.02, "downward_expansion": 34.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 249.882, 264.486511, 274.235433, 263.395312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 239.71, "trend_reference": 250.619449, "distance_from_trend": -0.04353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 222.982649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.686612, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.074091, "excess_performance": -0.113363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089562, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075016, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976562, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23862565, "relative_activity": 1.23721, "balance": 0.976562, "dry_up": 1.196617, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122066, "annualized_volatility": 0.555761, "from_high_reference": -0.292435, "from_low_reference": 0.322397 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 250.619449, "fair_value_reference": 222.982649, "structural_low": 184.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.042979, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.052198, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.244515, "worst_return": -0.179806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015406, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.093458, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.245581, "worst_return": -0.143148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.110099, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013901, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.252565, "worst_return": 0.078005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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295.211364, 273.858482, 259.869085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 292.26, "volume": 16613342, "typical_volume": 17313261.5, "trend": 247.361993, "fair_value": 221.751424, "relative_strength": 8.078418, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.439601, "energy": 25.341148, "activity_lines": [ 287.599954, 294.25104, 277.582514, 262.906085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 266.53, "volume": 18839986, "typical_volume": 17690333.35, "trend": 248.742497, "fair_value": 222.159752, "relative_strength": 2.921172, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.436384, "energy": 24.010366, "activity_lines": [ 279.200231, 288.64827, 278.564757, 264.142731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 269.24, "volume": 17319398, "typical_volume": 17875095.2, "trend": 250.32609, "fair_value": 222.524435, "relative_strength": 5.636173, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.535297, "energy": 21.627607, "activity_lines": [ 274.189333, 284.032902, 279.611385, 265.465151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 229.16, "volume": 32296528, "typical_volume": 18739471.75, "trend": 250.626412, "fair_value": 222.690774, "relative_strength": -10.386273, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.568505, "energy": 21.310413, "activity_lines": [ 258.682, 272.516775, 276.514539, 264.099596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 239.71, "volume": 23862565, "typical_volume": 19287398.15, "trend": 250.619449, "fair_value": 222.982649, "relative_strength": -10.686612, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.54831, "energy": 32.405322, "activity_lines": [ 249.882, 264.486511, 274.235433, 263.395312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }