{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e945be9-7fb2-4585-8027-c8fe62263aca", "symbol": "IAU", "name": "iShares Gold Trust", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.445, "architecture_energy": 54.274, "architecture_maturity": 57.527, "architecture_confidence": 90.557, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.05, "rotation_up": 27.27, "upward_expansion": 9.4, "deceleration": 60.42, "rotation_down": 51.78, "downward_expansion": 82.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 1353.575993, 1356.361807, 1400.766756, 1448.352253 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1400.0, "trend_reference": 1505.83033, "distance_from_trend": -0.07028, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1082.170704, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293696, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.363959, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128269, "excess_performance": -0.073602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07028, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043618, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128269, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186353, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26798, "relative_activity": 0.460163, "balance": 0.186353, "dry_up": 0.366016, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039267, "annualized_volatility": 0.245215, "from_high_reference": -0.215247, "from_low_reference": 0.198107 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1505.83033, "fair_value_reference": 1082.170704, 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1451.975947, 1492.617309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1325.97998, "volume": 24420, "typical_volume": 145243.65, "trend": 1520.894332, "fair_value": 1068.100511, "relative_strength": -10.040575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.363011, "energy": 80.125592, "activity_lines": [ 1351.953979, 1374.634166, 1434.586898, 1479.711049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1336.97998, "volume": 17923, "typical_volume": 134912.05, "trend": 1514.659997, "fair_value": 1072.696537, "relative_strength": -8.933426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.737617, "energy": 64.474373, "activity_lines": [ 1345.110644, 1362.904891, 1420.045944, 1467.845607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1322.51001, "volume": 16120, "typical_volume": 122774.4, "trend": 1509.996997, "fair_value": 1077.142562, "relative_strength": -10.564456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.910921, "energy": 66.738373, "activity_lines": [ 1335.84532, 1351.247987, 1405.817565, 1455.448834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1400.0, "volume": 26798, "typical_volume": 58235.9, "trend": 1505.83033, "fair_value": 1082.170704, "relative_strength": -5.363959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.445383, "energy": 54.274325, "activity_lines": [ 1353.575993, 1356.361807, 1400.766756, 1448.352253 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }