{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e9a1119-7152-42bf-9e63-44d47b129177", "symbol": "BPAC11", "name": "Banco BTG Pactual S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 57.979, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.884, "architecture_energy": 15.592, "architecture_maturity": 23.05, "architecture_confidence": 71.092, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.17, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 16.26, "deceleration": 38.8, "rotation_down": 32.34, "downward_expansion": 59.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.456666, 55.172545, 55.237428, 55.852925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 53.91, "trend_reference": 56.709667, "distance_from_trend": -0.049368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.69383, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.358146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.215182, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105525, "excess_performance": -0.048477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049368, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010758, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.358146, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022152, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105525, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.309895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55593700, "relative_activity": 1.63426, "balance": 0.309895, "dry_up": 1.151082, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06284, "annualized_volatility": 0.325113, "from_high_reference": -0.176947, "from_low_reference": 0.368481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.709667, "fair_value_reference": 39.69383, "structural_low": 49.900002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.044868, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.017682, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.022413, "worst_return": -0.127968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018356, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013824, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.092288, "worst_return": -0.28723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.054276, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.00837, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072238, "worst_return": -0.120477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.044451, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200115, "worst_return": -0.111213, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114956, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156439, "active": false 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"end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06082, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084739, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013902, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28.716009, "volume": 59698800, "typical_volume": 52956660.0, "trend": 23.73938, "fair_value": 22.117811, "relative_strength": 18.771237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"close": 58.73, "volume": 48894400, "typical_volume": 36691970.0, "trend": 56.368458, "fair_value": 39.064571, "relative_strength": 4.00407, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.229621, "energy": 15.939033, "activity_lines": [ 55.510666, 54.211818, 55.473571, 56.151775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.18, "volume": 39013600, "typical_volume": 36343435.0, "trend": 56.504053, "fair_value": 39.222846, "relative_strength": 1.686664, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.321805, "energy": 26.013168, "activity_lines": [ 56.22, 54.576545, 55.470476, 56.139616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.669998, "volume": 36485000, "typical_volume": 34945205.0, "trend": 56.583, "fair_value": 39.372862, "relative_strength": -1.395411, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.627658, "energy": 24.427592, "activity_lines": [ 56.039999, 54.711636, 55.347762, 56.02129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.8, "volume": 25536200, "typical_volume": 33836755.0, "trend": 56.736667, "fair_value": 39.541804, "relative_strength": -0.024274, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.294951, "energy": 19.863477, "activity_lines": [ 56.301333, 55.230909, 55.434238, 56.03529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.91, "volume": 55593700, "typical_volume": 34017655.0, "trend": 56.709667, "fair_value": 39.69383, "relative_strength": -2.215182, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.884385, "energy": 15.592276, "activity_lines": [ 55.456666, 55.172545, 55.237428, 55.852925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }