{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e9bcce9-9aa5-4604-b731-05c6ee6677cb", "symbol": "FRX", "name": "Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.674, "architecture_energy": 59.851, "architecture_maturity": 62.521, "architecture_confidence": 79.071, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 52.81, "upward_expansion": 80.49, "deceleration": 68.39, "rotation_down": 27.15, "downward_expansion": 9.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.74, 14.514545, 13.48619, 12.620344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.02, "trend_reference": 11.725667, "distance_from_trend": 0.366234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.64141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.50544, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.717103, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.484708, "excess_performance": 0.364287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.366234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.50544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.579205, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.217171, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.446493, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.484708, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.166667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2100, "relative_activity": 0.530303, "balance": 2.166667, "dry_up": 0.347222, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076059, "annualized_volatility": 0.755594, "from_high_reference": -0.004969, "from_low_reference": 1.110672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.725667, "fair_value_reference": 10.64141, "structural_low": 7.59, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.00671, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.027477, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.169355, "worst_return": -0.559933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.080645, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061624, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.31, "worst_return": -0.509259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.132097, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.22042, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.648741, "worst_return": -0.444591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-05-15", "close": 13.31, "volume": 12600, "typical_volume": 4140.0, "trend": 10.539333, "fair_value": 10.438846, "relative_strength": 6.910994, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.094477, "energy": 24.121951, "activity_lines": [ 10.657333, 9.906727, 10.055333, 10.223075 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 13.69, "volume": 8400, "typical_volume": 4445.0, "trend": 10.573333, "fair_value": 10.462692, "relative_strength": 8.118474, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.831612, "energy": 44.400682, "activity_lines": [ 11.848667, 10.636727, 10.385381, 10.426344 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 13.67, "volume": 7400, "typical_volume": 4530.0, "trend": 10.642667, "fair_value": 10.479487, "relative_strength": 7.241809, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.584959, "energy": 70.819775, "activity_lines": [ 12.747333, 11.309091, 10.697905, 10.626129 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 12.72, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4280.0, "trend": 10.676667, "fair_value": 10.488013, "relative_strength": 1.22623, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.786606, "energy": 80.19952, "activity_lines": [ 13.041333, 11.743636, 10.906524, 10.760151 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 12.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4195.0, "trend": 10.718333, "fair_value": 10.487308, "relative_strength": -2.539411, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.46332, "energy": 78.48289, "activity_lines": [ 12.972, 12.040182, 11.074095, 10.871333 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 12.69, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4070.0, "trend": 10.766333, "fair_value": 10.488846, "relative_strength": -0.118761, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.640216, "energy": 66.229238, "activity_lines": [ 12.816, 12.326364, 11.260048, 10.998538 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.24, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 4210.0, "trend": 10.902, "fair_value": 10.506987, "relative_strength": 19.833257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.433303, "energy": 71.166124, "activity_lines": [ 13.551333, 12.992727, 11.677048, 11.287161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4115.0, "trend": 11.061333, "fair_value": 10.530128, "relative_strength": 19.642932, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.744794, "energy": 80.797349, "activity_lines": [ 14.21, 13.567455, 12.080476, 11.572194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.5, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 3930.0, "trend": 11.191333, "fair_value": 10.548397, "relative_strength": 13.275252, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.384425, "energy": 79.239389, "activity_lines": [ 14.485333, 13.884545, 12.382857, 11.794043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.22, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 3835.0, "trend": 11.319, "fair_value": 10.567308, "relative_strength": 11.353603, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.487238, "energy": 82.612162, "activity_lines": [ 14.548667, 14.048364, 12.646762, 11.989441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.22, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3795.0, "trend": 11.438667, "fair_value": 10.586218, "relative_strength": 11.223463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.345774, "energy": 73.975397, "activity_lines": [ 14.490667, 14.129091, 12.898429, 12.176602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.85, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 3880.0, "trend": 11.553333, "fair_value": 10.606859, "relative_strength": 8.852011, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.026891, "energy": 50.585999, "activity_lines": [ 14.207333, 14.126, 13.096429, 12.332172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.02, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 3960.0, "trend": 11.725667, "fair_value": 10.64141, "relative_strength": 21.717103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.673826, "energy": 59.850902, "activity_lines": [ 14.74, 14.514545, 13.48619, 12.620344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }