{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ea2b1bc-9e8f-4771-8a50-6e3776949cef", "symbol": "EAT", "name": "AmRest Holdings SE", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.965, "architecture_energy": 40.062, "architecture_maturity": 85.992, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.97, "rotation_up": 21.5, "upward_expansion": 4.6, "deceleration": 49.69, "rotation_down": 52.84, "downward_expansion": 77.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.444667, 2.467, 2.498619, 2.571613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.51, "trend_reference": 2.719833, "distance_from_trend": -0.077149, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.292249, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.415225, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.674897, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.215625, "excess_performance": -0.340056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.415225, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032168, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.374711, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40280, "relative_activity": 0.554407, "balance": 0.374711, "dry_up": 0.775867, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059914, "annualized_volatility": 0.249999, "from_high_reference": -0.316936, "from_low_reference": 0.091304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.719833, "fair_value_reference": 4.292249, "structural_low": 2.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.019656, "positive_rate": 0.342105, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": -0.042274, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.280654, "worst_return": -0.282051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.076633, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.118163, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.242982, "worst_return": -0.255667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.079336, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.250096, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.085366, "worst_return": -0.299145, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 77097.85, "trend": 2.775167, "fair_value": 4.337268, "relative_strength": -31.40311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.20609, "energy": 54.084839, "activity_lines": [ 2.426, 2.468818, 2.514738, 2.608667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.44, "volume": 46738, "typical_volume": 73228.15, "trend": 2.749167, "fair_value": 4.31438, "relative_strength": -30.13311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.723014, "energy": 53.425205, "activity_lines": [ 2.416667, 2.461, 2.502762, 2.587043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.51, "volume": 40280, "typical_volume": 72654.2, "trend": 2.719833, "fair_value": 4.292249, "relative_strength": -28.674897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.964818, "energy": 40.062399, "activity_lines": [ 2.444667, 2.467, 2.498619, 2.571613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }