{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8eade1d0-7ded-4ef0-be32-7c8d40af55c9", "symbol": "RQFI", "name": "Xtrackers Harvest CSI300 UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.36, "architecture_energy": 20.822, "architecture_maturity": 60.606, "architecture_confidence": 74.586, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.57, "rotation_up": 19.57, "upward_expansion": 47.92, "deceleration": 85.14, "rotation_down": 38.52, "downward_expansion": 25.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.715467, 11.857927, 11.864838, 11.729576 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.78, "trend_reference": 11.548146, "distance_from_trend": 0.020077, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.578517, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.320267, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065742, "excess_performance": -0.10515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020077, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033732, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093203, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065742, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.552814, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6276, "relative_activity": 0.327823, "balance": 0.552814, "dry_up": 0.917431, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02676, "annualized_volatility": 0.124586, "from_high_reference": -0.045536, "from_low_reference": 0.24587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.548146, "fair_value_reference": 9.578517, "structural_low": 10.732, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.026837, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.004853, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.066778, "worst_return": -0.05816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.098519, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.13286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073101, "worst_return": -0.139213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.069044, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.16104, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.142399, "worst_return": -0.131391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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62.152332, "energy": 55.856506, "activity_lines": [ 12.120533, 12.072982, 11.8542, 11.676246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.794, "volume": 6077, "typical_volume": 20424.3, "trend": 11.490108, "fair_value": 9.53302, "relative_strength": -6.181077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.387318, "energy": 37.821504, "activity_lines": [ 12.0128, 12.031455, 11.868543, 11.69805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.764, "volume": 49229, "typical_volume": 20884.1, "trend": 11.520672, "fair_value": 9.547514, "relative_strength": -6.250223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.916289, "energy": 23.043294, "activity_lines": [ 11.901467, 11.9848, 11.8774, 11.715721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.49, "volume": 8673, "typical_volume": 20325.15, "trend": 11.534566, "fair_value": 9.560641, "relative_strength": -8.989789, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.096321, "energy": 19.720629, "activity_lines": [ 11.735467, 11.891745, 11.857429, 11.713742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.78, "volume": 6276, "typical_volume": 19144.5, "trend": 11.548146, "fair_value": 9.578517, "relative_strength": -9.320267, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.359797, "energy": 20.821638, "activity_lines": [ 11.715467, 11.857927, 11.864838, 11.729576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }