{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8eb2efaf-4be9-420d-a7b8-c409d6748485", "symbol": "300172", "name": "Cec Environmental Protection Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.145, "architecture_energy": 46.695, "architecture_maturity": 90.732, "architecture_confidence": 63.487, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.71, "rotation_up": 27.36, "upward_expansion": 20.2, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 40.43, "downward_expansion": 67.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.364667, 4.342, 4.571375, 4.827054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.43, "trend_reference": 5.141228, "distance_from_trend": -0.138338, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.20401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.139423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.225773, "excess_performance": -0.233173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138338, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148733, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191394, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013266, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.256915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76152869, "relative_activity": 1.078959, "balance": 0.256915, "dry_up": 0.978842, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061588, "annualized_volatility": 0.313976, "from_high_reference": -0.328312, "from_low_reference": 0.096535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.141228, "fair_value_reference": 5.20401, "structural_low": 4.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.030039, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01446, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.448638, "worst_return": -0.131931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.163379, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.047388, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.341067, "worst_return": -0.084926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.119826, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00745, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.155084, "worst_return": 0.034499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -67.780536, "energy": 84.312096, "activity_lines": [ 4.260667, 4.402182, 4.737537, 4.988395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.26, "volume": 71401331, "typical_volume": 79954654.7, "trend": 5.208697, "fair_value": 5.208009, "relative_strength": -20.615214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.430017, "energy": 64.369024, "activity_lines": [ 4.256, 4.345455, 4.662322, 4.924509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.44, "volume": 61727057, "typical_volume": 73209764.25, "trend": 5.171858, "fair_value": 5.206103, "relative_strength": -15.37463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.423498, "energy": 59.067252, "activity_lines": [ 4.322667, 4.339091, 4.613548, 4.874916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.43, "volume": 76152869, "typical_volume": 70579954.55, "trend": 5.141228, "fair_value": 5.20401, "relative_strength": -19.139423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.144703, "energy": 46.694894, "activity_lines": [ 4.364667, 4.342, 4.571375, 4.827054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }