{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8eb3abba-a02b-4a83-9a2e-ec2e17831a32", "symbol": "MBQ", "name": "Mobotix AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.824, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.456, "architecture_energy": 46.171, "architecture_maturity": 9.777, "architecture_confidence": 48.429, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.18, "rotation_up": 20.14, "upward_expansion": 17.6, "deceleration": 45.0, "rotation_down": 61.34, "downward_expansion": 59.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.111333, 1.143636, 1.187952, 1.215129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.09, "trend_reference": 1.174833, "distance_from_trend": -0.072209, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.060545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.113378, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.981818, "excess_performance": 0.917178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072209, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151986, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061134, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.506741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.981818, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.496944, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1019, "relative_activity": 0.065949, "balance": 0.496944, "dry_up": 0.346264, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121383, "annualized_volatility": 1.27506, "from_high_reference": -0.684971, "from_low_reference": 1.422222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.174833, "fair_value_reference": 1.060545, "structural_low": 0.57, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.079646, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.049942, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.004082, "worst_return": -0.174194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.127119, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.126194, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154839, "worst_return": -0.200029, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.2552, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.126821, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.335484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.348101, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076271, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.278195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.398936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.216561, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.214545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048035, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.28, "volume": 5557, "typical_volume": 11706.8, "trend": 3.347333, "fair_value": 4.926518, "relative_strength": -7.551879, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.481149, 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"close": 1.18, "volume": 16153, "typical_volume": 35736.05, "trend": 1.107667, "fair_value": 1.126154, "relative_strength": 25.625828, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.279173, "energy": 8.728321, "activity_lines": [ 1.200333, 1.212636, 1.251786, 1.222194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.11, "volume": 6704, "typical_volume": 23900.05, "trend": 1.125833, "fair_value": 1.108269, "relative_strength": 17.875503, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.010647, "energy": 10.945778, "activity_lines": [ 1.169667, 1.191455, 1.232524, 1.222344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.08, "volume": 7843, "typical_volume": 21607.75, "trend": 1.141333, "fair_value": 1.092756, "relative_strength": 12.400976, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.546292, "energy": 37.004814, "activity_lines": [ 1.135, 1.168636, 1.21331, 1.219387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.145, "volume": 5835, "typical_volume": 16982.45, "trend": 1.159667, "fair_value": 1.077147, "relative_strength": 15.507636, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.074335, "energy": 37.632224, "activity_lines": [ 1.127333, 1.160364, 1.202524, 1.219624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.09, "volume": 1019, "typical_volume": 15451.35, "trend": 1.174833, "fair_value": 1.060545, "relative_strength": 6.113378, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.456343, "energy": 46.171, "activity_lines": [ 1.111333, 1.143636, 1.187952, 1.215129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }