{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8eb55997-b136-49f6-9c86-86e8aa74ceb2", "symbol": "STZ", "name": "Constellation Brands, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.176, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.201, "architecture_energy": 65.077, "architecture_maturity": 16.033, "architecture_confidence": 91.676, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.56, "rotation_up": 15.71, "upward_expansion": 14.13, "deceleration": 39.98, "rotation_down": 66.61, "downward_expansion": 89.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.590631, 117.631569, 121.268528, 123.980966 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 117.5, "trend_reference": 127.084195, "distance_from_trend": -0.075416, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 173.670888, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.858575, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14436, "excess_performance": -0.318607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007036, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017187, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050476, "annualized_volatility": 0.292298, "from_high_reference": -0.180802, "from_low_reference": 0.087239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.084195, "fair_value_reference": 173.670888, "structural_low": 112.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.017485, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.004065, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.163554, "worst_return": -0.213287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026319, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.033396, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.191715, "worst_return": -0.312115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057858, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.242624, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.208305, "worst_return": -0.302694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -32.418354, "energy": 40.128883, "activity_lines": [ 123.466667, 124.796667, 127.962938, 128.424379 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 127.869194, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.2, "trend": 127.885326, "fair_value": 177.808481, "relative_strength": -18.458703, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.337379, "energy": 20.093051, "activity_lines": [ 124.823065, 124.920773, 127.795153, 128.449184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 117.956856, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.2, "trend": 127.827504, "fair_value": 177.175896, "relative_strength": -25.756153, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.989409, "energy": 37.831702, "activity_lines": [ 122.917404, 123.434387, 126.728359, 127.808637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 115.478767, "volume": 67, "typical_volume": 13.1, "trend": 127.485214, "fair_value": 176.562743, "relative_strength": -25.593254, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.244299, "energy": 61.807793, "activity_lines": [ 120.321923, 121.788235, 125.477148, 127.011944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.452469, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13.1, "trend": 127.616236, "fair_value": 175.871682, "relative_strength": -21.41023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.834758, "energy": 62.626558, "activity_lines": [ 119.119091, 121.001324, 124.582697, 126.429187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.99192, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13.1, "trend": 127.493538, "fair_value": 175.123294, "relative_strength": -24.586666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.710578, "energy": 77.94485, "activity_lines": [ 116.932579, 119.540631, 123.329908, 125.550199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.85, "trend": 127.32957, "fair_value": 174.390098, "relative_strength": -24.379706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.049187, "energy": 79.169762, "activity_lines": [ 115.015965, 118.0361, 122.042256, 124.615132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.85, "trend": 127.084195, "fair_value": 173.670888, "relative_strength": -22.858575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.201046, "energy": 65.077175, "activity_lines": [ 115.590631, 117.631569, 121.268528, 123.980966 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }