{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ebd2698-c5dc-4903-a9a7-6ad099eb2b7e", "symbol": "RGRTH", "name": "Raiffeisen ETF - Solid Gold Responsibly Sourced & Traceable H CHF (hedged)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.598, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.176, "architecture_energy": 56.169, "architecture_maturity": 54.73, "architecture_confidence": 94.285, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.98, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 9.98, "deceleration": 60.42, "rotation_down": 54.68, "downward_expansion": 85.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 985.220011, 986.176366, 1026.403335, 1063.97097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1030.400024, "trend_reference": 1107.486672, "distance_from_trend": -0.069605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 790.486541, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303501, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.802813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.158445, "excess_performance": -0.261313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010772, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118028, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186502, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158445, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.644075, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7747, "relative_activity": 1.327234, "balance": 0.644075, "dry_up": 1.136167, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041761, "annualized_volatility": 0.2283, "from_high_reference": -0.238321, "from_low_reference": 0.241147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1107.486672, "fair_value_reference": 790.486541, 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1041.70333, 1078.808817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 961.400024, "volume": 7045, "typical_volume": 5658.7, "trend": 1108.793337, "fair_value": 787.331412, "relative_strength": -16.546938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.03048, "energy": 81.362793, "activity_lines": [ 963.873336, 981.307271, 1030.11857, 1069.028603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1030.400024, "volume": 7747, "typical_volume": 5836.95, "trend": 1107.486672, "fair_value": 790.486541, "relative_strength": -11.802813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.175945, "energy": 56.169189, "activity_lines": [ 985.220011, 986.176366, 1026.403335, 1063.97097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }