{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ebf9814-3bd9-4529-ab92-465b71c00c30", "symbol": "002669", "name": "Kangda New Materials (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.976, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.176, "architecture_energy": 70.59, "architecture_maturity": 12.666, "architecture_confidence": 73.92, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.93, "rotation_up": 10.78, "upward_expansion": 17.11, "deceleration": 35.02, "rotation_down": 74.6, "downward_expansion": 88.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.682, 13.163091, 13.969869, 14.034752 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.32, "trend_reference": 14.215201, "distance_from_trend": -0.133322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.529153, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.253489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165059, "excess_performance": -0.172459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010739, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068595, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188559, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165059, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.282753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72635003, "relative_activity": 0.89064, "balance": 2.282753, "dry_up": 0.915714, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168053, "annualized_volatility": 0.67516, "from_high_reference": -0.350553, "from_low_reference": 0.245703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.215201, "fair_value_reference": 11.529153, "structural_low": 9.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.011578, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009979, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.260199, "worst_return": -0.193351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.090238, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.01886, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.30009, "worst_return": -0.248457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.130279, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.080448, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.417189, "worst_return": -0.287842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 11.569201, "relative_strength": -13.531643, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.312014, "energy": 23.441376, "activity_lines": [ 15.835334, 15.868132, 15.087019, 14.831182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.83, "volume": 77132875, "typical_volume": 82306533.45, "trend": 14.516859, "fair_value": 11.554145, "relative_strength": -23.569637, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.548563, "energy": 23.19518, "activity_lines": [ 14.07, 15.003685, 14.728704, 14.588321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.97, "volume": 78357525, "typical_volume": 83552241.1, "trend": 14.425144, "fair_value": 11.542771, "relative_strength": -22.455574, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.671295, "energy": 48.3596, "activity_lines": [ 12.662667, 14.227207, 14.404357, 14.359491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.38, "volume": 70593932, "typical_volume": 83928682.8, "trend": 14.308317, "fair_value": 11.532949, "relative_strength": -17.957766, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.536439, "energy": 55.916448, "activity_lines": [ 11.842667, 13.580364, 14.133107, 14.163031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.32, "volume": 72635003, "typical_volume": 81553688.8, "trend": 14.215201, "fair_value": 11.529153, "relative_strength": -15.253489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.176369, "energy": 70.590157, "activity_lines": [ 11.682, 13.163091, 13.969869, 14.034752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }