{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ec06d33-caf2-4e93-bd46-560545c31167", "symbol": "ALGN", "name": "Align Technology Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.904, "architecture_energy": 19.587, "architecture_maturity": 31.148, "architecture_confidence": 57.913, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.13, "rotation_up": 13.32, "upward_expansion": 9.35, "deceleration": 56.34, "rotation_down": 47.68, "downward_expansion": 63.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 171.930333, 174.712, 174.361667, 174.71071 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 173.66, "trend_reference": 175.2035, "distance_from_trend": -0.00881, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 212.528494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182886, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.891172, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074307, "excess_performance": -0.261761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0446, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069761, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086522, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074307, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.36794, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4661073, "relative_activity": 0.949714, "balance": 1.36794, "dry_up": 0.970274, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086349, "annualized_volatility": 0.331121, "from_high_reference": -0.133584, "from_low_reference": 0.423443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.2035, "fair_value_reference": 212.528494, "structural_low": 151.58, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.019886, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.009278, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.317192, "worst_return": -0.306371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.11325, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.097895, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.427553, "worst_return": -0.270222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.208014, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.530197, "worst_return": -0.597477, 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"trend": 174.448667, "fair_value": 216.287372, "relative_strength": -1.331122, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.634157, "energy": 27.44056, "activity_lines": [ 179.606667, 177.359636, 175.599048, 175.647806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 167.015, "volume": 3922214, "typical_volume": 5219907.8, "trend": 174.736833, "fair_value": 214.909904, "relative_strength": -4.400807, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.962301, "energy": 5.313323, "activity_lines": [ 175.195667, 176.096364, 174.89319, 175.168215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 169.16, "volume": 6748398, "typical_volume": 5125602.05, "trend": 175.1745, "fair_value": 213.67734, "relative_strength": -3.691221, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.542107, "energy": 18.416124, "activity_lines": [ 172.504, 175.045545, 174.424881, 174.808419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 173.66, "volume": 4661073, "typical_volume": 4907868.9, "trend": 175.2035, "fair_value": 212.528494, "relative_strength": -5.891172, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.904253, "energy": 19.586792, "activity_lines": [ 171.930333, 174.712, 174.361667, 174.71071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }