{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ec5f28e-b63c-49c8-bc33-38343a79e5b8", "symbol": "TSLI", "name": "IncomeShares Tesla TSLA Options ETP", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.047, "architecture_energy": 92.401, "architecture_maturity": 58.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.523, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 8.17, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 83.9, "downward_expansion": 97.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.299633, 3.575995, 3.870264, 4.074397 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.16, "trend_reference": 4.412359, "distance_from_trend": -0.28383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.521658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.301141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.131409, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.373529, "excess_performance": -0.424764, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.28383, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117907, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.301141, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.391314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.373529, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.463899, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13349, "relative_activity": 0.53195, "balance": 0.463899, "dry_up": 0.425483, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088308, "annualized_volatility": 0.491719, "from_high_reference": -0.490026, "from_low_reference": 0.056856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.412359, "fair_value_reference": 4.521658, "structural_low": 2.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.05385, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.055122, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.065843, "worst_return": -0.208186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.045398, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.068653, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.045398, "worst_return": -0.045398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }