{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ec60d7f-c853-4390-a85e-631c7a9041f5", "symbol": "300025", "name": "Hangzhou Huaxing Chuangye Communication Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.914, "architecture_energy": 36.642, "architecture_maturity": 88.936, "architecture_confidence": 61.025, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.58, "rotation_up": 25.52, "upward_expansion": 16.74, "deceleration": 66.82, "rotation_down": 41.6, "downward_expansion": 66.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.472667, 4.416, 4.709048, 4.953011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.95, "trend_reference": 5.294333, "distance_from_trend": -0.065038, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.273333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.401692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.438787, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.162437, "excess_performance": -0.169836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094728, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.401692, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070183, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162437, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568407, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107265984, "relative_activity": 1.906756, "balance": 0.568407, "dry_up": 1.430035, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094794, "annualized_volatility": 0.379688, "from_high_reference": -0.368622, "from_low_reference": 0.292428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.294333, "fair_value_reference": 8.273333, "structural_low": 3.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.02214, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011321, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.248175, "worst_return": -0.23588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.063415, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.063304, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.869723, "worst_return": -0.222766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014475, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.200973, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.507418, "worst_return": -0.206854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.174784, "energy": 63.825428, "activity_lines": [ 4.202, 4.364364, 4.775143, 5.042043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.36, "volume": 69354977, "typical_volume": 53535196.8, "trend": 5.321333, "fair_value": 8.324615, "relative_strength": -24.387712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.191313, "energy": 55.793385, "activity_lines": [ 4.244667, 4.325818, 4.710429, 4.976968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.95, "volume": 107265984, "typical_volume": 56255744.2, "trend": 5.294333, "fair_value": 8.273333, "relative_strength": -17.438787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.913742, "energy": 36.642136, "activity_lines": [ 4.472667, 4.416, 4.709048, 4.953011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }