{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8ec9b6bd-1e5e-4a84-a6de-897e60ffba7b",
    "symbol": "COSMO",
    "name": "Farmacosmo S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 93.674,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -17.932,
    "architecture_energy": 9.811,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.371,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.331,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.7,
        "rotation_up": 20.34,
        "upward_expansion": 21.55,
        "deceleration": 58.82,
        "rotation_down": 29.61,
        "downward_expansion": 50.88
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.478067,
        0.482236,
        0.463852,
        0.467759
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.486,
    "trend_reference": 0.487467,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.003009,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.652282,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.254924,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -13.19819,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.164948,
    "excess_performance": -0.33584,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003009,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019734,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.254924,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115539,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.131982,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115745,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.164948,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.90106,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 76022,
      "relative_activity": 0.748802,
      "balance": 1.90106,
      "dry_up": 0.77432,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.109528,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.6118,
      "from_high_reference": -0.339674,
      "from_low_reference": 0.296
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.487467,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.652282,
      "structural_low": 0.375,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.071809,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.087815,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": -0.051576,
        "worst_return": -0.108761,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.24734,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.274773,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.24734,
        "worst_return": -0.24734,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.308511,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.435759,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.308511,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.303191,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.512764,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.303191,
        "worst_return": -0.303191,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "return": -0.020513,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 308497.55,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 293873.8,
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        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 187507.9,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 125231.95,
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        "relative_strength": -28.805875,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
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        "energy": 17.454309,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 109257.55,
        "trend": 0.485433,
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        "relative_strength": -12.261705,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 15.229656,
        "energy": 27.031621,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 107890.45,
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        "fair_value": 0.664269,
        "relative_strength": -12.981957,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.384113,
        "energy": 31.678992,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.48,
        "volume": 94156,
        "typical_volume": 107305.55,
        "trend": 0.490467,
        "fair_value": 0.660962,
        "relative_strength": -12.898866,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 14.918659,
        "energy": 27.076833,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.495867,
          0.473418,
          0.458995,
          0.470875
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.469,
        "volume": 75224,
        "typical_volume": 106124.9,
        "trend": 0.492167,
        "fair_value": 0.657647,
        "relative_strength": -14.163342,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -5.969681,
        "energy": 12.371308,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.483,
          0.4764,
          0.459957,
          0.46949
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.471,
        "volume": 69049,
        "typical_volume": 103034.9,
        "trend": 0.491667,
        "fair_value": 0.654385,
        "relative_strength": -13.78294,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -19.370994,
        "energy": 10.969569,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.476733,
          0.478618,
          0.461181,
          0.468125
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.486,
        "volume": 76022,
        "typical_volume": 101524.85,
        "trend": 0.487467,
        "fair_value": 0.652282,
        "relative_strength": -13.19819,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -17.932454,
        "energy": 9.810769,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.478067,
          0.482236,
          0.463852,
          0.467759
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}