{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8eca3b60-5ad2-4967-a967-3677eb3918e5", "symbol": "002040", "name": "Nanjing Port Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.299, "architecture_energy": 46.733, "architecture_maturity": 83.197, "architecture_confidence": 63.655, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.17, "rotation_up": 27.07, "upward_expansion": 20.19, "deceleration": 66.83, "rotation_down": 40.76, "downward_expansion": 67.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.976695, 7.931984, 8.50786, 8.979359 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.08, "trend_reference": 9.524738, "distance_from_trend": -0.151683, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.822302, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032944, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.243248, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26075, "excess_performance": -0.26815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151683, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032944, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361824, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26075, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25743276, "relative_activity": 0.687157, "balance": 0.307245, "dry_up": 0.821722, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07298, "annualized_volatility": 0.313247, "from_high_reference": -0.406755, "from_low_reference": 0.097336 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.524738, "fair_value_reference": 7.822302, "structural_low": 7.363285, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.026667, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.020128, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.204044, "worst_return": -0.143079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05037, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.040575, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.268431, "worst_return": -0.117724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083144, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.060695, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.232514, "worst_return": -0.101549, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.686087, "energy": 84.292122, "activity_lines": [ 7.733981, 8.104202, 8.869971, 9.295929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.875857, "volume": 35593243, "typical_volume": 47255661.0, "trend": 9.649071, "fair_value": 7.804271, "relative_strength": -21.48004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.17333, "energy": 63.949622, "activity_lines": [ 7.761514, 7.979699, 8.721309, 9.17696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.09, "volume": 27786996, "typical_volume": 41237885.3, "trend": 9.583738, "fair_value": 7.813568, "relative_strength": -17.555357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.835999, "energy": 55.955514, "activity_lines": [ 7.892038, 7.940023, 8.608775, 9.076374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.08, "volume": 25743276, "typical_volume": 37463456.05, "trend": 9.524738, "fair_value": 7.822302, "relative_strength": -21.243248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.298634, "energy": 46.73341, "activity_lines": [ 7.976695, 7.931984, 8.50786, 8.979359 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }