{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ece80e5-83bb-4bf5-a202-7dc2899d100c", "symbol": "MORARJEE", "name": "Morarjee Textiles Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 62.029, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.826, "architecture_energy": 86.762, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.982, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 80.23, "upward_expansion": 97.24, "deceleration": 42.01, "rotation_down": 8.49, "downward_expansion": 21.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.607333, 10.720727, 9.568571, 8.850323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.24, "trend_reference": 8.098333, "distance_from_trend": 0.38794, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.634487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110371, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 37.593863, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.442875, "excess_performance": 0.486585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.38794, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098973, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3475, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.375939, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.402463, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.442875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.488763, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46965, "relative_activity": 1.727188, "balance": 5.488763, "dry_up": 2.164869, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102724, "annualized_volatility": 0.804389, "from_high_reference": -0.094279, "from_low_reference": 1.014337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.098333, "fair_value_reference": 12.634487, "structural_low": 5.58, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.041441, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.061311, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.404304, "worst_return": -0.28655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.167742, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.13711, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.329787, "worst_return": -0.220833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.288137, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.311438, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.57672, "worst_return": -0.427852, 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"2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155862, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.272933, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 69566, "typical_volume": 147097.75, "trend": 18.956667, "fair_value": 18.238782, "relative_strength": -11.963897, "stage": 4, "regime": 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12.804103, "relative_strength": 26.352333, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.224677, "energy": 81.954039, "activity_lines": [ 9.146667, 8.707273, 8.113238, 7.801591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.82, "volume": 144887, "typical_volume": 26983.95, "trend": 7.678667, "fair_value": 12.761282, "relative_strength": 50.547046, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.795125, "energy": 92.005601, "activity_lines": [ 10.122, 9.319636, 8.517952, 8.076065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.4, "volume": 29177, "typical_volume": 27551.65, "trend": 7.825, "fair_value": 12.725064, "relative_strength": 59.591534, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.108484, "energy": 95.590063, "activity_lines": [ 11.002667, 9.954364, 8.950952, 8.380667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.83, "volume": 14436, "typical_volume": 26869.9, "trend": 7.965333, "fair_value": 12.684231, "relative_strength": 47.028593, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.237321, "energy": 90.580554, "activity_lines": [ 11.503333, 10.412364, 9.299571, 8.639054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.24, "volume": 46965, "typical_volume": 27191.6, "trend": 8.098333, "fair_value": 12.634487, "relative_strength": 37.593863, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.826417, "energy": 86.761707, "activity_lines": [ 11.607333, 10.720727, 9.568571, 8.850323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }