{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8edcb8a8-70d1-465a-a7d9-160d95062e78", "symbol": "MVE", "name": "VanEck S&P/ASX MidCap ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.444, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.224, "architecture_energy": 38.638, "architecture_maturity": 6.492, "architecture_confidence": 64.285, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.94, "rotation_up": 55.87, "upward_expansion": 45.7, "deceleration": 32.81, "rotation_down": 25.83, "downward_expansion": 22.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.581334, 43.230885, 42.844378, 42.801932 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.580002, "trend_reference": 43.156829, "distance_from_trend": 0.056148, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.280842, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160362, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.649695, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043021, "excess_performance": -0.020685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016078, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069173, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023179, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043021, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.92251, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115203, "relative_activity": 1.665313, "balance": 1.92251, "dry_up": 1.219983, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027446, "annualized_volatility": 0.174155, "from_high_reference": -0.035344, "from_low_reference": 0.155094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.156829, "fair_value_reference": 39.280842, "structural_low": 39.459999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009518, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008439, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.043725, "worst_return": -0.033745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062551, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022226, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095255, "worst_return": 0.026036, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038322, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082864, "worst_return": 0.033196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 43.581334, 43.230885, 42.844378, 42.801932 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }