{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8edebd77-0c5f-4a70-85a1-5eebc55bcfb2",
    "symbol": "XD5D",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EMU UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.649,
    "architecture_energy": 69.907,
    "architecture_maturity": 67.591,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.728,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.13,
        "rotation_up": 59.62,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 66.54,
        "rotation_down": 27.51,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        101.656097
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 108.650002,
    "trend_reference": 99.433667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.092688,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 80.057324,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.357153,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 5.318279,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.122765,
    "excess_performance": 0.07153,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.092688,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047291,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.357153,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.069393,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053183,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024074,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.122765,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.756908,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2545,
      "relative_activity": 0.295006,
      "balance": 0.756908,
      "dry_up": 1.155507,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018633,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.170102,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000644,
      "from_low_reference": 0.288391
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 99.433667,
      "fair_value_reference": 80.057324,
      "structural_low": 88.169998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 41,
        "median_return": 0.004952,
        "positive_rate": 0.609756,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.609756,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003588,
        "regime_survival": 0.780488,
        "best_return": 0.095892,
        "worst_return": -0.092621,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
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        "worst_return": -0.052862,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "worst_return": -0.15877,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.105514,
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        "relative_strength": 0.833651,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 50.317854,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 98.625,
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        "trend": 93.917753,
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        "relative_strength": 2.910896,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 6747.7,
        "trend": 94.20242,
        "fair_value": 76.812741,
        "relative_strength": 2.532855,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 52.572265,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 13299,
        "typical_volume": 7138.1,
        "trend": 94.559,
        "fair_value": 77.06492,
        "relative_strength": 3.16442,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.348456,
        "energy": 57.911373,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 101.849998,
        "volume": 1001,
        "typical_volume": 6689.0,
        "trend": 94.943667,
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        "relative_strength": 4.440427,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 7984.85,
        "trend": 95.3755,
        "fair_value": 77.578991,
        "relative_strength": 4.752511,
        "stage": 2,
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 75.796733,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 1007,
        "typical_volume": 7955.5,
        "trend": 95.811167,
        "fair_value": 77.840658,
        "relative_strength": 5.724111,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 8.511209,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 1260,
        "typical_volume": 7448.7,
        "trend": 96.849167,
        "fair_value": 78.393318,
        "relative_strength": 5.657436,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.37556,
        "energy": 88.654419,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 107.279999,
        "volume": 2449,
        "typical_volume": 7568.65,
        "trend": 97.372667,
        "fair_value": 78.690786,
        "relative_strength": 6.69385,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.247535,
        "energy": 94.842725,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 187,
        "typical_volume": 7473.4,
        "trend": 97.8185,
        "fair_value": 78.959536,
        "relative_strength": 6.146276,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.8631,
        "energy": 86.498291,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 104.160004,
        "volume": 16732,
        "typical_volume": 8295.95,
        "trend": 98.203667,
        "fair_value": 79.221395,
        "relative_strength": 4.171652,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.644272,
        "energy": 70.813062,
        "activity_lines": [
          105.149333,
          104.404,
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          100.12815
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 105.099998,
        "volume": 10672,
        "typical_volume": 8671.95,
        "trend": 98.623833,
        "fair_value": 79.482997,
        "relative_strength": 3.68912,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.398062,
        "energy": 63.879754,
        "activity_lines": [
          105.078666,
          104.73,
          102.36419,
          100.573075
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 105.779999,
        "volume": 9925,
        "typical_volume": 9009.05,
        "trend": 99.019333,
        "fair_value": 79.760305,
        "relative_strength": 2.965883,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.278265,
        "energy": 60.364817,
        "activity_lines": [
          105.273333,
          105.048363,
          102.934547,
          101.034763
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 108.650002,
        "volume": 2545,
        "typical_volume": 8626.95,
        "trend": 99.433667,
        "fair_value": 80.057324,
        "relative_strength": 5.318279,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.64862,
        "energy": 69.907252,
        "activity_lines": [
          106.334,
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          101.656097
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}