{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ee287af-4772-4473-8eba-bbf4f90361be", "symbol": "SPCE", "name": "Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.284, "architecture_energy": 12.786, "architecture_maturity": 16.947, "architecture_confidence": 49.123, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.77, "rotation_up": 20.36, "upward_expansion": 13.64, "deceleration": 63.65, "rotation_down": 47.86, "downward_expansion": 40.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.724, 2.825273, 3.113667, 3.036774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.1, "trend_reference": 2.945333, "distance_from_trend": 0.052512, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.778974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.757414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.771094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.225296, "excess_performance": 0.099672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04764, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.757414, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087908, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056772, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.225296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43505346, "relative_activity": 0.385187, "balance": 0.307888, "dry_up": 0.407354, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.419169, "annualized_volatility": 1.224869, "from_high_reference": -0.651685, "from_low_reference": 0.455399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.945333, "fair_value_reference": 12.778974, "structural_low": 2.13, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.117512, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.130551, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.391459, "worst_return": -0.36747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.373656, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.321812, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054264, "worst_return": -0.605991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.386344, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.505378, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.174194, "worst_return": -0.816923, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.912849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105943, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08284, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071661, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.551437, "energy": 16.018857, "activity_lines": [ 2.902, 3.397818, 3.258571, 3.116903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.56, "volume": 69429898, "typical_volume": 108468627.7, "trend": 2.995, "fair_value": 14.122949, "relative_strength": -27.912616, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.589376, "energy": 18.441326, "activity_lines": [ 2.709333, 3.222545, 3.211476, 3.086817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.49, "volume": 31967603, "typical_volume": 109603182.65, "trend": 2.972667, "fair_value": 13.635064, "relative_strength": -28.54966, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.06955, "energy": 23.615012, "activity_lines": [ 2.583333, 3.041455, 3.157667, 3.054237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.55, "volume": 39133005, "typical_volume": 111220015.15, "trend": 2.948, "fair_value": 13.174487, "relative_strength": -26.854553, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.15473, "energy": 24.328473, "activity_lines": [ 2.548667, 2.877091, 3.109714, 3.026968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.1, "volume": 43505346, "typical_volume": 112945960.55, "trend": 2.945333, "fair_value": 12.778974, "relative_strength": -13.771094, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.284299, "energy": 12.78581, "activity_lines": [ 2.724, 2.825273, 3.113667, 3.036774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }