{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ef1022e-eadd-449a-aabf-043fe86330b8", "symbol": "HTZ", "name": "Hertz Global Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.877, "architecture_energy": 86.862, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.291, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.63, "rotation_up": 11.91, "upward_expansion": 21.8, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 76.52, "downward_expansion": 97.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.918, 2.327364, 3.526833, 3.993398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.27, "trend_reference": 4.488167, "distance_from_trend": -0.494226, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.97375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.620004, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.473456, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.570888, "excess_performance": -0.758342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.494226, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154559, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.620004, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.470282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.604735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.473132, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.570888, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 475826113, "relative_activity": 4.946251, "balance": 0.729925, "dry_up": 1.913921, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.324741, "annualized_volatility": 1.282558, "from_high_reference": -0.722494, "from_low_reference": 0.565517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.488167, "fair_value_reference": 5.97375, "structural_low": 1.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.000895, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019229, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.763441, "worst_return": -0.410488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.04714, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071472, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.233509, "worst_return": -0.498623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114458, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.191116, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.196881, "worst_return": -0.5427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.81, "volume": 79870843, "typical_volume": 70488471.55, "trend": 4.722333, "fair_value": 6.165064, "relative_strength": -67.872455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.014688, "energy": 90.467629, "activity_lines": [ 1.952, 2.882182, 4.016524, 4.346204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.585, "volume": 95745093, "typical_volume": 74060286.55, "trend": 4.601167, "fair_value": 6.070417, "relative_strength": -71.449794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.510265, "energy": 91.270746, "activity_lines": [ 1.785667, 2.508727, 3.733571, 4.143796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.27, "volume": 475826113, "typical_volume": 96199350.05, "trend": 4.488167, "fair_value": 5.97375, "relative_strength": -60.473456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.877131, "energy": 86.862465, "activity_lines": [ 1.918, 2.327364, 3.526833, 3.993398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }