{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ef3fbce-5d73-470d-a213-2dd364b36ef6", "symbol": "MHM", "name": "MyHotelMatch S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.537, "architecture_energy": 83.49, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.872, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.49, "rotation_up": 12.26, "upward_expansion": 20.73, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 74.93, "downward_expansion": 96.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.155167, 0.161464, 0.168281, 0.178009 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.1565, "trend_reference": 0.197267, "distance_from_trend": -0.206658, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.526279, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.702629, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.163215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.378968, "excess_performance": -0.43228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206658, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167534, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.702629, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02751, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.421632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378968, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.275724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11979, "relative_activity": 0.121508, "balance": 1.275724, "dry_up": 0.251365, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073237, "annualized_volatility": 0.521926, "from_high_reference": -0.661255, "from_low_reference": 0.117857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.197267, "fair_value_reference": 0.526279, "structural_low": 0.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.061372, "positive_rate": 0.355556, "directional_follow_through": 0.644444, "median_excess_return": -0.058934, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.405797, "worst_return": -0.345455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.087533, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.15522, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.939759, "worst_return": -0.507692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.225274, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.204682, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.489362, "worst_return": -0.582051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 100724.0, "trend": 0.20045, "fair_value": 0.537776, "relative_strength": -44.923212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.888837, "energy": 81.181159, "activity_lines": [ 0.156833, 0.163464, 0.170055, 0.180844 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1565, "volume": 11979, "typical_volume": 98585.8, "trend": 0.197267, "fair_value": 0.526279, "relative_strength": -42.163215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.536885, "energy": 83.489929, "activity_lines": [ 0.155167, 0.161464, 0.168281, 0.178009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }