{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ef6d2df-4131-4fef-a594-948123b593a0", "symbol": "SMSJPN", "name": "Invesco MSCI Japan UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.806, "architecture_energy": 57.595, "architecture_maturity": 64.573, "architecture_confidence": 73.335, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.4, "rotation_up": 47.58, "upward_expansion": 76.5, "deceleration": 91.5, "rotation_down": 29.73, "downward_expansion": 14.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.878, 101.789455, 100.310619, 98.466602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 105.330002, "trend_reference": 96.221333, "distance_from_trend": 0.094664, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.296346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328308, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.8392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.148136, "excess_performance": -0.022756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094664, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054696, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328308, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053246, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012701, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148136, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 35.662698, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 546, "relative_activity": 0.460701, "balance": 35.662698, "dry_up": 0.769523, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017666, "annualized_volatility": 0.176368, "from_high_reference": -9.5e-05, "from_low_reference": 0.329756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.221333, "fair_value_reference": 79.296346, "structural_low": 87.290001, "invalidation": "A 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"relative_strength": -1.907096, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.227658, "energy": 56.027712, "activity_lines": [ 101.037334, 101.210546, 99.283477, 97.558581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 99.769997, "volume": 167, "typical_volume": 1433.45, "trend": 95.736667, "fair_value": 79.030641, "relative_strength": -3.239478, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.036989, "energy": 40.156447, "activity_lines": [ 100.426, 101.002182, 99.552191, 97.847678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.330002, "volume": 546, "typical_volume": 1185.15, "trend": 96.221333, "fair_value": 79.296346, "relative_strength": -0.8392, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.806039, "energy": 57.594653, "activity_lines": [ 101.878, 101.789455, 100.310619, 98.466602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }