{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ef73632-1542-4432-b077-c0d9678ed453", "symbol": "WALD", "name": "Waldencast Acquisition Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.599, "architecture_energy": 17.063, "architecture_maturity": 23.266, "architecture_confidence": 53.722, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.86, "rotation_up": 36.89, "upward_expansion": 65.42, "deceleration": 74.24, "rotation_down": 25.46, "downward_expansion": 15.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.608667, 1.638909, 1.548009, 1.495283 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.39, "trend_reference": 1.49455, "distance_from_trend": -0.069954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.880298, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.64178, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.1783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227778, "excess_performance": -0.415231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081153, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.64178, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050468, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281783, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.519107, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1716332, "relative_activity": 0.353866, "balance": 1.519107, "dry_up": 0.392036, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218041, "annualized_volatility": 1.32629, "from_high_reference": -0.568323, "from_low_reference": 0.930556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.49455, "fair_value_reference": 3.880298, "structural_low": 0.72, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.209178, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.208102, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.059166, "worst_return": -0.375458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.255997, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.32174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.209375, "worst_return": -0.302619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.236174, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.381929, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145833, "worst_return": -0.618182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -9.061028, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.148878, "energy": 21.677835, "activity_lines": [ 1.679333, 1.644182, 1.488149, 1.475368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.69, "volume": 1753821, "typical_volume": 4686754.45, "trend": 1.496883, "fair_value": 3.934144, "relative_strength": -8.714781, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.291694, "energy": 22.488803, "activity_lines": [ 1.692, 1.663455, 1.516975, 1.487182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.73, "volume": 2518690, "typical_volume": 4797503.6, "trend": 1.49755, "fair_value": 3.909401, "relative_strength": -6.689515, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.390761, "energy": 33.256576, "activity_lines": [ 1.716, 1.686, 1.54904, 1.502222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.39, "volume": 1716332, "typical_volume": 4850229.6, "trend": 1.49455, "fair_value": 3.880298, "relative_strength": -28.1783, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.599106, "energy": 17.063136, "activity_lines": [ 1.608667, 1.638909, 1.548009, 1.495283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }