{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ef75d36-7c48-44bf-bb7f-faf76e072143", "symbol": "XPSG", "name": "Pinnacle Indonesia ESG ETF", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.528, "architecture_energy": 47.844, "architecture_maturity": 52.354, "architecture_confidence": 86.77, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.72, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 22.97, "deceleration": 29.42, "rotation_down": 36.34, "downward_expansion": 70.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 319.466667, 316.981818, 325.1, 337.204301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 324.0, "trend_reference": 356.8, "distance_from_trend": -0.091928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 392.275641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17405, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.419302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.203931, "excess_performance": -0.011675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096633, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17405, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004193, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047024, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.150407, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.150407, "dry_up": 0.027555, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038936, "annualized_volatility": 0.388574, "from_high_reference": -0.468852, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 356.8, "fair_value_reference": 392.275641, "structural_low": 288.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.011285, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.209836, "worst_return": -0.114213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096535, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.014696, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.114754, "worst_return": -0.225888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014164, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146199, "worst_return": -0.137056, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061881, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.010188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152047, "worst_return": 0.050761, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024631, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041262, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.225888, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078591, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.109948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.181373, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 422.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9865.0, "trend": 418.2, "fair_value": 398.083333, "relative_strength": 0.149187, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.822155, 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"fair_value": 394.230769, "relative_strength": 0.986849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.833167, "energy": 57.37186, "activity_lines": [ 312.866667, 315.509091, 330.847619, 345.455914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 313.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13695.0, "trend": 362.666667, "fair_value": 393.532051, "relative_strength": 0.436914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.792175, "energy": 56.363025, "activity_lines": [ 312.4, 314.181818, 327.857143, 342.012903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 324.0, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 12700.0, "trend": 359.866667, "fair_value": 392.903846, "relative_strength": 3.207328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.106071, "energy": 45.389822, "activity_lines": [ 316.066667, 315.527273, 326.414286, 339.51828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 324.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9980.0, "trend": 356.8, "fair_value": 392.275641, "relative_strength": 0.419302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.528309, "energy": 47.843986, "activity_lines": [ 319.466667, 316.981818, 325.1, 337.204301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }