{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8efcf4c1-3e61-420f-88b3-b2f85de8c708", "symbol": "688571", "name": "Hangzhou Toka Ink Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.045, "architecture_energy": 14.966, "architecture_maturity": 25.765, "architecture_confidence": 48.896, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.1, "rotation_up": 25.86, "upward_expansion": 20.5, "deceleration": 59.75, "rotation_down": 49.86, "downward_expansion": 38.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.070667, 8.338187, 8.497435, 8.400484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.43, "trend_reference": 8.272678, "distance_from_trend": 0.139897, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.963633, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.354178, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.680154, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.164198, "excess_performance": 0.207401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139897, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034042, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.354178, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010807, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.166802, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164198, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.274653, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68173419, "relative_activity": 1.514142, "balance": 1.274653, "dry_up": 1.20511, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164084, "annualized_volatility": 0.78614, "from_high_reference": -0.141166, "from_low_reference": 0.489731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.272678, "fair_value_reference": 6.963633, "structural_low": 6.33, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016463, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.000662, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.227833, "worst_return": -0.129129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010511, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.041354, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.17332, "worst_return": -0.247942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008534, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038608, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121871, "worst_return": -0.240038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.140003, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008617, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.155093, "worst_return": 0.108343, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094752, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037518, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051213, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097576, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015075, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", 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[ 9.069354, 8.98152, 8.656396, 8.448165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.26, "volume": 72980100, "typical_volume": 38445511.05, "trend": 8.223678, "fair_value": 6.92362, "relative_strength": 11.762683, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.326761, "energy": 32.214332, "activity_lines": [ 9.195333, 9.032324, 8.73887, 8.519153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.5, "volume": 58700385, "typical_volume": 40464423.4, "trend": 8.236011, "fair_value": 6.933354, "relative_strength": -3.654215, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.185289, "energy": 7.834926, "activity_lines": [ 8.710667, 8.757659, 8.647202, 8.472464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.79, "volume": 48538149, "typical_volume": 41540795.55, "trend": 8.213011, "fair_value": 6.938112, "relative_strength": -13.482793, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.904376, "energy": 14.75831, "activity_lines": [ 8.017333, 8.382043, 8.491343, 8.379173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.32, "volume": 41625644, "typical_volume": 42592129.35, "trend": 8.206678, "fair_value": 6.945234, "relative_strength": -6.818888, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.431434, "energy": 24.718611, "activity_lines": [ 7.668, 8.145804, 8.391865, 8.32156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.43, "volume": 68173419, "typical_volume": 45024445.8, "trend": 8.272678, "fair_value": 6.963633, "relative_strength": 16.680154, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.045102, "energy": 14.965518, "activity_lines": [ 8.070667, 8.338187, 8.497435, 8.400484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }