{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f0afca3-c965-4208-9f75-54bdc541f3b7", "symbol": "002761", "name": "Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.516, "architecture_energy": 33.958, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.337, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.5, "rotation_up": 26.64, "upward_expansion": 17.16, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 32.56, "downward_expansion": 62.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.095995, 7.01997, 7.34661, 7.599694 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.13, "trend_reference": 7.934266, "distance_from_trend": -0.101366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.22382, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.127473, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.173812, "excess_performance": -0.181212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073893, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.227001, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.40745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58389703, "relative_activity": 1.128709, "balance": 0.40745, "dry_up": 1.201817, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066544, "annualized_volatility": 0.273434, "from_high_reference": -0.299607, "from_low_reference": 0.088154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.934266, "fair_value_reference": 9.22382, "structural_low": 6.552381, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.009238, "positive_rate": 0.486486, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.029478, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.118421, "worst_return": -0.173923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.098085, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.090087, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.133265, "worst_return": -0.276766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.196041, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.194266, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 3.270833, "worst_return": -0.310998, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 77.829583, "activity_lines": [ 6.851492, 7.065496, 7.521343, 7.773531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.86, "volume": 58938568, "typical_volume": 51937325.25, "trend": 8.022599, "fair_value": 9.327706, "relative_strength": -20.888004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.873952, "energy": 55.27209, "activity_lines": [ 6.853439, 6.97826, 7.430924, 7.694847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.4, "volume": 70975651, "typical_volume": 51734887.45, "trend": 7.982266, "fair_value": 9.282357, "relative_strength": -12.546682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.217766, "energy": 39.35811, "activity_lines": [ 7.046647, 7.019024, 7.398934, 7.654679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.13, "volume": 58389703, "typical_volume": 51731392.9, "trend": 7.934266, "fair_value": 9.22382, "relative_strength": -19.127473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.515868, "energy": 33.958195, "activity_lines": [ 7.095995, 7.01997, 7.34661, 7.599694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }