{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f15905c-482b-48df-9490-e6ffc63a1494", "symbol": "TROX", "name": "Tronox Holdings PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.157, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.973, "architecture_energy": 50.114, "architecture_maturity": 19.852, "architecture_confidence": 88.134, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.49, "rotation_up": 17.61, "upward_expansion": 8.63, "deceleration": 45.56, "rotation_down": 58.64, "downward_expansion": 81.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.163333, 6.339818, 7.078403, 7.352755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.51, "trend_reference": 7.424259, "distance_from_trend": -0.123145, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.140277, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.287768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.172974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116312, "excess_performance": -0.241937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123145, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130151, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.287768, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450229, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21778457, "relative_activity": 1.530527, "balance": 0.455675, "dry_up": 1.012394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156434, "annualized_volatility": 0.680903, "from_high_reference": -0.381975, "from_low_reference": 1.33693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.424259, "fair_value_reference": 9.140277, "structural_low": 5.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055692, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.023985, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.115258, "worst_return": -0.169846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009285, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.390779, "worst_return": -0.113482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.182541, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.196712, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226677, "worst_return": -0.25524, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.530185, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.414658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": 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9.209541, "relative_strength": -0.504745, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.614521, "energy": 59.924623, "activity_lines": [ 6.139333, 6.586182, 7.389388, 7.506371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.84, "volume": 13191525, "typical_volume": 14111986.45, "trend": 7.392583, "fair_value": 9.174228, "relative_strength": -8.414467, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.260438, "energy": 58.002967, "activity_lines": [ 6.011333, 6.386545, 7.199365, 7.409695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.51, "volume": 21778457, "typical_volume": 14229387.2, "trend": 7.424259, "fair_value": 9.140277, "relative_strength": -2.172974, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.972829, "energy": 50.113869, "activity_lines": [ 6.163333, 6.339818, 7.078403, 7.352755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }