{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f1607fc-0681-464d-8ff9-954210aa6ef3", "symbol": "FYLD", "name": "CAMBRIA FOREIGN SHAREHOLDER YIELD ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.372, "architecture_energy": 79.812, "architecture_maturity": 7.556, "architecture_confidence": 74.168, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.28, "rotation_up": 77.61, "upward_expansion": 90.28, "deceleration": 44.79, "rotation_down": 11.3, "downward_expansion": 19.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.996, 38.31579, 38.03833, 37.70605 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.69, "trend_reference": 37.112663, "distance_from_trend": 0.069446, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.766596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.429415, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.897366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097651, "excess_performance": -0.027974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069446, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.429415, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004152, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028974, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097651, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.473465, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1180261, "relative_activity": 2.771091, "balance": 3.473465, "dry_up": 1.070848, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024383, "annualized_volatility": 0.118209, "from_high_reference": -0.001761, "from_low_reference": 0.356362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.112663, "fair_value_reference": 27.766596, "structural_low": 35.48741, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.016851, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.00619, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.098575, "worst_return": -0.066408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03089, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.01852, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.176898, "worst_return": -0.074302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073822, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.037446, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.227167, "worst_return": -0.203146, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.195166, "energy": 18.178042, "activity_lines": [ 37.159129, 37.439333, 37.459205, 37.10066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.97, "volume": 213266, "typical_volume": 397863.0, "trend": 36.443272, "fair_value": 27.430268, "relative_strength": 3.080795, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.716567, "energy": 18.070396, "activity_lines": [ 37.370667, 37.500263, 37.52687, 37.212548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.64, "volume": 253464, "typical_volume": 384401.15, "trend": 36.660625, "fair_value": 27.535977, "relative_strength": 5.274571, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.62352, "energy": 35.822961, "activity_lines": [ 37.840667, 37.679987, 37.656634, 37.354272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.31, "volume": 177388, "typical_volume": 375855.8, "trend": 36.886813, "fair_value": 27.649561, "relative_strength": 5.680309, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.698923, "energy": 66.991072, "activity_lines": [ 38.448667, 37.974426, 37.8383, 37.5252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.69, "volume": 1180261, "typical_volume": 425919.3, "trend": 37.112663, "fair_value": 27.766596, "relative_strength": 2.897366, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.372324, "energy": 79.812309, "activity_lines": [ 38.996, 38.31579, 38.03833, 37.70605 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }