{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f1ab9cd-0b66-45e0-8cb7-594429e4f2b9", "symbol": "AIPU", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II USD Credit PAB Opportunities UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.271, "architecture_energy": 33.067, "architecture_maturity": 57.031, "architecture_confidence": 79.13, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.83, "rotation_up": 18.6, "upward_expansion": 54.49, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 56.54, "downward_expansion": 34.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.115867, 12.139782, 12.135398, 12.121548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.108, "trend_reference": 12.103267, "distance_from_trend": 0.000391, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.632464, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04088, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.193127, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003689, "excess_performance": -0.049623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000391, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002322, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04088, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062264, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003689, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.673739, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.673739, "dry_up": 0.234418, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002023, "annualized_volatility": 0.025344, "from_high_reference": -0.009652, "from_low_reference": 0.030793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.103267, "fair_value_reference": 11.632464, "structural_low": 11.9205, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002963, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.000166, "worst_return": -0.005761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.002445, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014978, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.002445, "worst_return": -0.002445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.013302, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013302, "worst_return": 0.013302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015179, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000166, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001492, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001773, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-05", "close": 10.8609, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-04-12", "close": 10.7763, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, 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"relative_strength": -3.408081, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.659001, "energy": 97.175036, "activity_lines": [ 12.177333, 12.153873, 12.1275, 12.110784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.226, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1201.0, "trend": 12.0976, "fair_value": 11.61648, "relative_strength": -1.428613, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.348172, "energy": 98.264593, "activity_lines": [ 12.1968, 12.170445, 12.138926, 12.119413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.108, "volume": 947, "typical_volume": 1248.35, "trend": 12.099017, "fair_value": 11.620576, "relative_strength": -2.338133, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.019927, "energy": 71.413975, "activity_lines": [ 12.172067, 12.163218, 12.13834, 12.120084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.108, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1248.35, "trend": 12.100433, "fair_value": 11.624604, "relative_strength": -2.684251, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.841688, "energy": 38.415393, "activity_lines": [ 12.150333, 12.155791, 12.137543, 12.120663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.108, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1009.95, "trend": 12.10185, "fair_value": 11.628566, "relative_strength": -4.0891, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.953663, "energy": 25.290806, "activity_lines": [ 12.1316, 12.148164, 12.136533, 12.121152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.108, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1009.95, "trend": 12.103267, "fair_value": 11.632464, "relative_strength": -6.193127, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.271006, "energy": 33.067223, "activity_lines": [ 12.115867, 12.139782, 12.135398, 12.121548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }