{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f1b41df-201e-4ba1-b551-554fd6de6451", "symbol": "ECRD", "name": "WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.743, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.742, "architecture_energy": 28.22, "architecture_maturity": 44.464, "architecture_confidence": 57.006, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.97, "rotation_up": 56.66, "upward_expansion": 64.82, "deceleration": 67.98, "rotation_down": 15.19, "downward_expansion": 15.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.045, 3.892964, 4.003602, 3.95329 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.8575, "trend_reference": 3.72695, "distance_from_trend": 0.035029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.805598, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.73966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.457035, "excess_performance": 0.286143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035029, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151016, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.37493, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047397, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.457035, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.797685, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 332822, "relative_activity": 0.629707, "balance": 0.797685, "dry_up": 0.706533, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099955, "annualized_volatility": 0.650961, "from_high_reference": -0.215955, "from_low_reference": 0.702339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.72695, "fair_value_reference": 2.805598, "structural_low": 2.56, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.031384, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.058338, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.150974, "worst_return": -0.057523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002941, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.064403, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.650765, "worst_return": -0.109729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021227, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.93294, "worst_return": -0.107335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.316331, "energy": 17.546806, "activity_lines": [ 3.887267, 3.847255, 4.014174, 3.903011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.219, "volume": 248571, "typical_volume": 576354.3, "trend": 3.680017, "fair_value": 2.797758, "relative_strength": 18.308521, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.450285, "energy": 28.517669, "activity_lines": [ 4.0544, 3.899664, 4.026712, 3.94184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.8575, "volume": 332822, "typical_volume": 528534.7, "trend": 3.72695, "fair_value": 2.805598, "relative_strength": 4.73966, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.742087, "energy": 28.22009, "activity_lines": [ 4.045, 3.892964, 4.003602, 3.95329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }