{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f1d2134-ba00-41bb-99af-1b3eb3dfa5a7", "symbol": "FMAG", "name": "FIDELITY MAGELLAN ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.535, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.973, "architecture_energy": 29.949, "architecture_maturity": 35.932, "architecture_confidence": 80.656, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.08, "rotation_up": 39.21, "upward_expansion": 65.16, "deceleration": 89.5, "rotation_down": 26.06, "downward_expansion": 12.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.13176, 36.061458, 35.94761, 35.386968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.957, "trend_reference": 34.798773, "distance_from_trend": 0.06202, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.570687, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.153088, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.097298, "excess_performance": -0.028327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06202, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017637, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011097, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097298, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.939443, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111968, "relative_activity": 1.074071, "balance": 1.939443, "dry_up": 0.960623, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034761, "annualized_volatility": 0.175081, "from_high_reference": -0.016447, "from_low_reference": 0.212102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.798773, "fair_value_reference": 30.570687, "structural_low": 30.49, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011284, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000323, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.13158, "worst_return": -0.052864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032783, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001309, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125311, "worst_return": -0.078735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109545, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224595, "worst_return": 0.027875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106953, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145709, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06371, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011614, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035179, "active": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 43.641744, "energy": 31.308248, "activity_lines": [ 36.002253, 36.061196, 35.39299, 34.928688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.6347, "volume": 75905, "typical_volume": 113046.75, "trend": 34.604797, "fair_value": 30.214499, "relative_strength": -4.857799, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.856315, "energy": 40.872361, "activity_lines": [ 36.217193, 36.169062, 35.582203, 35.065616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.4734, "volume": 161917, "typical_volume": 114321.45, "trend": 34.652577, "fair_value": 30.299507, "relative_strength": -6.1454, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.644138, "energy": 23.81174, "activity_lines": [ 35.973673, 36.047605, 35.648127, 35.121655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.2257, "volume": 50243, "typical_volume": 110624.0, "trend": 34.670767, "fair_value": 30.382611, "relative_strength": -5.962957, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.842755, "energy": 19.426059, "activity_lines": [ 35.684693, 35.891051, 35.681683, 35.158631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.9832, "volume": 76438, "typical_volume": 105293.7, "trend": 34.730207, "fair_value": 30.473421, "relative_strength": -4.69654, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.076235, "energy": 19.528283, "activity_lines": [ 35.761067, 35.886665, 35.776926, 35.243304 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.957, "volume": 111968, "typical_volume": 104246.4, "trend": 34.798773, "fair_value": 30.570687, "relative_strength": -5.153088, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.973029, "energy": 29.949236, "activity_lines": [ 36.13176, 36.061458, 35.94761, 35.386968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }