{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f1d5aeb-2169-4035-a115-5ff3ce80e3ad", "symbol": "XQUI", "name": "Xtrackers Portfolio UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.246, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.615, "architecture_energy": 35.496, "architecture_maturity": 58.24, "architecture_confidence": 76.439, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.59, "rotation_up": 34.85, "upward_expansion": 60.5, "deceleration": 88.06, "rotation_down": 27.59, "downward_expansion": 21.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 355.883999, 356.67509, 353.649048, 348.594215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 359.809998, "trend_reference": 342.770667, "distance_from_trend": 0.049711, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 301.438781, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193642, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.409741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079992, "excess_performance": -0.0909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049711, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031956, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193642, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011799, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.080323, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2852, "relative_activity": 1.295422, "balance": 1.080323, "dry_up": 1.400913, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017939, "annualized_volatility": 0.086458, "from_high_reference": -0.005583, "from_low_reference": 0.17 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 342.770667, "fair_value_reference": 301.438781, "structural_low": 313.75, "invalidation": 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"energy": 46.72092, "activity_lines": [ 356.571328, 356.899816, 351.738904, 346.756366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 351.540009, "volume": 5532, "typical_volume": 2141.35, "trend": 341.844001, "fair_value": 300.78032, "relative_strength": -7.033823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.511442, "energy": 32.631559, "activity_lines": [ 354.611332, 356.037636, 352.357143, 347.435119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 359.809998, "volume": 2852, "typical_volume": 2201.6, "trend": 342.770667, "fair_value": 301.438781, "relative_strength": -7.409741, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.614619, "energy": 35.495693, "activity_lines": [ 355.883999, 356.67509, 353.649048, 348.594215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }