{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f23c1e8-0331-479b-bdff-70d84d20e6bc", "symbol": "CYRE3", "name": "Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participa\u00e7\u00f5es", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.538, "architecture_energy": 45.817, "architecture_maturity": 50.246, "architecture_confidence": 92.878, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.65, "rotation_up": 20.0, "upward_expansion": 6.21, "deceleration": 49.18, "rotation_down": 54.07, "downward_expansion": 77.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.483333, 21.868364, 22.291714, 23.44471 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.67, "trend_reference": 25.062667, "distance_from_trend": -0.135367, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.658209, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.5074, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.303887, "excess_performance": -0.246839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135367, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098899, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799884, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32269400, "relative_activity": 1.20272, "balance": 0.799884, "dry_up": 1.166417, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07955, "annualized_volatility": 0.39116, "from_high_reference": -0.398309, "from_low_reference": 0.092789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.062667, "fair_value_reference": 21.658209, "structural_low": 19.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.015663, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.018454, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.243457, "worst_return": -0.153425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035573, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013136, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.486306, "worst_return": -0.306849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.095516, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.652273, "worst_return": -0.282192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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27031775.0, "trend": 25.252333, "fair_value": 21.657078, "relative_strength": -26.521277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.510925, "energy": 40.743776, "activity_lines": [ 21.955333, 22.005454, 22.680048, 23.920731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.37, "volume": 31470600, "typical_volume": 27056360.0, "trend": 25.166, "fair_value": 21.65866, "relative_strength": -25.380865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.208077, "energy": 44.802434, "activity_lines": [ 21.604, 21.910727, 22.45919, 23.670258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.67, "volume": 32269400, "typical_volume": 26830345.0, "trend": 25.062667, "fair_value": 21.658209, "relative_strength": -21.5074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.538193, "energy": 45.816813, "activity_lines": [ 21.483333, 21.868364, 22.291714, 23.44471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }