{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f25d5c6-bd42-4851-96d4-ca4d86628125", "symbol": "NATO", "name": "THEMES TRANSATLANTIC DEFENSE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.771, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.458, "architecture_energy": 39.579, "architecture_maturity": 25.143, "architecture_confidence": 53.209, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.22, "rotation_up": 57.61, "upward_expansion": 53.19, "deceleration": 29.24, "rotation_down": 23.97, "downward_expansion": 16.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.668747, 41.16488, 40.459116, 40.422188 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.36, "trend_reference": 40.740707, "distance_from_trend": 0.064292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.767523, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247141, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.816667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037197, "excess_performance": -0.150257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064292, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025676, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091835, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104476, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.677719, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92016, "relative_activity": 0.657665, "balance": 1.677719, "dry_up": 0.677938, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044546, "annualized_volatility": 0.266849, "from_high_reference": -0.023203, "from_low_reference": 0.244628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.740707, "fair_value_reference": 34.767523, "structural_low": 37.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015548, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018988, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.082586, "worst_return": -0.089581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.045336, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.11697, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.045336, "worst_return": -0.045336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068104, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040311, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112365, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 25.249623, "volume": 1004, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 25.968671, "volume": 2928, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 25.337341, "volume": 9001, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 25.028936, "volume": 4496, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 26.574342, "volume": 13718, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 25.608749, "volume": 8925, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 26.325709, "volume": 9569, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 26.578917, "volume": 2698, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 26.445451, "volume": 6962, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 25.875881, "volume": 11995, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 25.488709, "volume": 13842, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 25.590715, "volume": 3309, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 25.492771, "volume": 3554, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 25.386765, "volume": 5127, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 26.036238, "volume": 2936, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 26.834915, "volume": 3339, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 26.90459, "volume": 4541, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 26.247652, "volume": 10771, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 26.377049, "volume": 6208, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "close": 26.210924, "volume": 33165, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "close": 27.850182, "volume": 50061, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "close": 28.457352, "volume": 243072, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "close": 29.074476, "volume": 139148, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "close": 28.935125, "volume": 139634, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "close": 28.675436, "volume": 108062, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "close": 25.945959, "volume": 136107, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "close": 28.238373, "volume": 217097, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "close": 29.273548, "volume": 59595, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "close": 29.343223, "volume": 81826, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "close": 30.806403, "volume": 70385, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "close": 31.174686, "volume": 104666, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "close": 32.398979, "volume": 68586, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "close": 32.508469, "volume": 96044, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "close": 33.563551, "volume": 60035, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "close": 34.240396, "volume": 287533, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "close": 33.882066, "volume": 139397, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "close": 33.792484, "volume": 122673, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "close": 35.38506, "volume": 266537, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "close": 35.464689, "volume": 190844, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "close": 35.922555, "volume": 187659, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "close": 36.649168, "volume": 273265, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "close": 36.5994, "volume": 186980, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "close": 35.750358, "volume": 111542, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "close": 35.917578, "volume": 99915, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "close": 36.041998, "volume": 76317, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "close": 36.078329, "volume": 72447, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "close": 36.327567, "volume": 140593, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "close": 36.335629, "volume": 56199, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "close": 37.186663, "volume": 101420, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "close": 37.744064, "volume": 155354, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "close": 38.420909, "volume": 79239, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "close": 39.067894, "volume": 165280, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "close": 37.848577, "volume": 135769, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "close": 37.146848, "volume": 129945, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "close": 38.91859, "volume": 92309, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "close": 38.499045, "volume": 72895, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "close": 37.335967, "volume": 107746, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "close": 37.022428, "volume": 55750, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "close": 35.37013, "volume": 138118, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "close": 36.173585, "volume": 60591, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "close": 36.121627, "volume": 57878, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "close": 37.107034, "volume": 62319, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "close": 37.8186, "volume": 65129, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "close": 38.45, "volume": 57714, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "close": 39.0321, "volume": 57473, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "close": 42.0, "volume": 193524, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "close": 43.69, "volume": 272327, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "close": 42.78, "volume": 247362, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "close": 41.75, "volume": 156310, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "close": 41.805, "volume": 135591, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "close": 42.48, "volume": 178409, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "close": 43.7, "volume": 157787, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "close": 43.425, "volume": 163366, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "close": 42.76, "volume": 366003, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "close": 40.7839, "volume": 194344, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "close": 39.1808, "volume": 248713, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "close": 37.865, "volume": 103419, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "close": 39.76, "volume": 176909, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "close": 40.6672, "volume": 154906, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "close": 41.2722, "volume": 121906, "typical_volume": 158569.45, "trend": 39.608414, "fair_value": 33.717252, "relative_strength": -1.650126, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.923378, "energy": 15.937794, "activity_lines": [ 40.214707, 40.582929, 41.036305, 40.395664 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "close": 37.875, "volume": 184997, "typical_volume": 164925.4, "trend": 39.590218, "fair_value": 33.768582, "relative_strength": -11.552776, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.496026, "energy": 18.947658, "activity_lines": [ 39.590027, 39.980309, 40.774646, 40.283831 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 38.4614, "volume": 171616, "typical_volume": 170390.25, "trend": 39.570001, "fair_value": 33.825812, "relative_strength": -11.387812, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.275338, "energy": 18.518621, "activity_lines": [ 39.247867, 39.568035, 40.560485, 40.211004 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 39.1533, "volume": 134216, "typical_volume": 173844.6, "trend": 39.613492, "fair_value": 33.889998, "relative_strength": -14.264303, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.016649, "energy": 17.958905, "activity_lines": [ 39.09658, 39.376807, 40.40577, 40.18412 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 37.575, "volume": 236679, "typical_volume": 182792.85, "trend": 39.627764, "fair_value": 33.933867, "relative_strength": -17.221564, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.966938, "energy": 42.576493, "activity_lines": [ 38.45964, 38.976284, 40.094384, 40.052605 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 39.32, "volume": 155942, "typical_volume": 187716.3, "trend": 39.641144, "fair_value": 33.997234, "relative_strength": -14.177643, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.807577, "energy": 28.314238, "activity_lines": [ 38.610513, 38.987305, 39.953356, 40.032749 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 40.89, "volume": 195058, "typical_volume": 187793.0, "trend": 39.720842, "fair_value": 34.077382, "relative_strength": -13.012404, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.951552, "energy": 6.107151, "activity_lines": [ 39.414867, 39.310398, 39.960481, 40.11332 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 38.98, "volume": 198324, "typical_volume": 184092.85, "trend": 39.775643, "fair_value": 34.133734, "relative_strength": -12.913364, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.340138, "energy": 9.111817, "activity_lines": [ 39.381553, 39.255142, 39.790987, 40.065524 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 39.81, "volume": 133704, "typical_volume": 178409.95, "trend": 39.868563, "fair_value": 34.198237, "relative_strength": -12.819534, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.002805, "energy": 7.938148, "activity_lines": [ 39.590333, 39.330522, 39.722969, 40.067741 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 40.52, "volume": 189160, "typical_volume": 180052.45, "trend": 40.040225, "fair_value": 34.269268, "relative_strength": -13.320068, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.340724, "energy": 10.935253, "activity_lines": [ 39.992, 39.534084, 39.736712, 40.109769 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 39.7098, "volume": 69894, "typical_volume": 176767.6, "trend": 40.158099, "fair_value": 34.329718, "relative_strength": -10.818107, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.896901, "energy": 13.105504, "activity_lines": [ 39.927267, 39.593013, 39.679151, 40.088451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 42.1992, "volume": 120499, "typical_volume": 173872.1, "trend": 40.360684, "fair_value": 34.416196, "relative_strength": -5.89877, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.011208, "energy": 23.880639, "activity_lines": [ 40.666347, 40.132967, 39.868653, 40.220135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.628, "volume": 71624, "typical_volume": 169563.95, "trend": 40.47805, "fair_value": 34.483716, "relative_strength": -10.767555, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.062436, "energy": 21.488555, "activity_lines": [ 40.794413, 40.308627, 39.909854, 40.237381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.4011, "volume": 77130, "typical_volume": 165252.15, "trend": 40.5308, "fair_value": 34.536591, "relative_strength": -9.459971, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.040602, "energy": 13.587512, "activity_lines": [ 40.403647, 40.221822, 39.848836, 40.167901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.8762, "volume": 121284, "typical_volume": 153016.2, "trend": 40.611673, "fair_value": 34.604033, "relative_strength": -4.396176, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.740131, "energy": 13.929893, "activity_lines": [ 40.53184, 40.398711, 39.947465, 40.190185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.5431, "volume": 88980, "typical_volume": 147748.0, "trend": 40.695373, "fair_value": 34.677076, "relative_strength": -3.23638, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.523605, "energy": 13.972836, "activity_lines": [ 40.858587, 40.636833, 40.118579, 40.250277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.36, "volume": 92016, "typical_volume": 139913.15, "trend": 40.740707, "fair_value": 34.767523, "relative_strength": -3.816667, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.457776, "energy": 39.579358, "activity_lines": [ 41.668747, 41.16488, 40.459116, 40.422188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }