{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f2a9539-6ed1-4729-b757-143e8fda0f48", "symbol": "FEMI", "name": "Fidelity Emerging Markets Quality Income UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.458, "architecture_energy": 25.238, "architecture_maturity": 68.515, "architecture_confidence": 89.373, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.01, "rotation_up": 24.56, "upward_expansion": 57.22, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 37.72, "downward_expansion": 20.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.456533, 8.637818, 8.598971, 8.314116 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.68, "trend_reference": 7.934633, "distance_from_trend": 0.093938, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.112978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.135525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.206729, "excess_performance": 0.035837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093938, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097698, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.41993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021355, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.206729, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.621941, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69918, "relative_activity": 1.906632, "balance": 2.621941, "dry_up": 1.257692, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05732, "annualized_volatility": 0.285407, "from_high_reference": -0.084292, "from_low_reference": 0.404985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.934633, "fair_value_reference": 6.112978, "structural_low": 6.726, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011805, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013395, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.15167, "worst_return": -0.097107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.004412, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.295902, "worst_return": -0.000712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.094375, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030817, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.352306, "worst_return": 0.050401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.134146, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.079528, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.151714, "worst_return": 0.116578, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025646, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021247, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020237, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018251, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023146, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073448, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039263, "active": false }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.270449, "energy": 25.975348, "activity_lines": [ 8.600267, 8.791636, 8.56181, 8.240409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.16, "volume": 50181, "typical_volume": 35467.35, "trend": 7.872933, "fair_value": 6.088128, "relative_strength": -0.992808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.890368, "energy": 25.008794, "activity_lines": [ 8.417533, 8.663782, 8.55851, 8.262047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.68, "volume": 69918, "typical_volume": 36670.95, "trend": 7.934633, "fair_value": 6.112978, "relative_strength": 2.135525, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.4582, "energy": 25.237794, "activity_lines": [ 8.456533, 8.637818, 8.598971, 8.314116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }