{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f4017a1-f8c1-4564-b74a-b20afa2f62a4", "symbol": "BMED", "name": "ISHARES HEALTH INNOVATION ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.706, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 54.585, "architecture_energy": 62.558, "architecture_maturity": 20.181, "architecture_confidence": 64.55, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.29, "rotation_up": 70.23, "upward_expansion": 58.74, "deceleration": 30.51, "rotation_down": 19.51, "downward_expansion": 19.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.168033, 30.785562, 29.827809, 29.563085 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.8561, "trend_reference": 29.571345, "distance_from_trend": 0.077262, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.138293, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218752, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.302041, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.033937, "excess_performance": -0.091688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077262, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218752, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141773, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02302, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033937, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.500821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10501, "relative_activity": 0.936628, "balance": 1.500821, "dry_up": 0.879499, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027527, "annualized_volatility": 0.186271, "from_high_reference": -0.007398, "from_low_reference": 0.291305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.571345, "fair_value_reference": 26.138293, "structural_low": 27.172552, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.013483, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005201, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.057276, "worst_return": -0.01304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037825, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.013971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13305, "worst_return": -0.009787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027102, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067617, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.261418, "worst_return": 0.020923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 11339.4, "trend": 29.520546, "fair_value": 26.041434, "relative_strength": -1.222515, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.489872, "energy": 72.558684, "activity_lines": [ 30.81822, 30.184598, 29.364146, 29.319137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.9904, "volume": 2522, "typical_volume": 10973.2, "trend": 29.544768, "fair_value": 26.086817, "relative_strength": -1.533436, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.214532, "energy": 63.187138, "activity_lines": [ 30.862433, 30.433564, 29.56057, 29.413967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.8561, "volume": 10501, "typical_volume": 11211.5, "trend": 29.571345, "fair_value": 26.138293, "relative_strength": -2.302041, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.584905, "energy": 62.557867, "activity_lines": [ 31.168033, 30.785562, 29.827809, 29.563085 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }