{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8f407759-8ed6-4394-9945-bdbd8b97cb1a",
    "symbol": "QVMT",
    "name": "INVESCO S&P 500 CONCENTRATED QVM ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 68.412,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 29.819,
    "architecture_energy": 21.924,
    "architecture_maturity": 61.646,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.995,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.11,
        "rotation_up": 22.19,
        "upward_expansion": 54.77,
        "deceleration": 91.14,
        "rotation_down": 32.24,
        "downward_expansion": 18.44
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        65.45296,
        66.110296,
        65.812573,
        64.69376
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 65.1931,
    "trend_reference": 63.106137,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.033071,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 50.341977,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295005,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.13864,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.067282,
    "excess_performance": -0.058343,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033071,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059199,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.295005,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05273,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021386,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.058074,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067282,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.589185,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 51315,
      "relative_activity": 1.127693,
      "balance": 1.589185,
      "dry_up": 1.355144,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034481,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.122614,
      "from_high_reference": -0.067538,
      "from_low_reference": 0.309784
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 63.106137,
      "fair_value_reference": 50.341977,
      "structural_low": 57.92,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": 0.004897,
        "positive_rate": 0.588235,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.588235,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016917,
        "regime_survival": 0.470588,
        "best_return": 0.082641,
        "worst_return": -0.05931,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.029888,
        "positive_rate": 0.7,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.7,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004187,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.11006,
        "worst_return": -0.029773,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.096757,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.014206,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.178139,
        "worst_return": -0.064751,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.117031,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01813,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.19188,
        "worst_return": -0.01676,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-11-24",
        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.032699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.094091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035212,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.004193,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.043311,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019451,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.043011,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009301,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03729,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.028987,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.091422,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.046389,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.055272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004671,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 49.67888,
        "relative_strength": 4.728629,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 51853.9,
        "trend": 62.319061,
        "fair_value": 49.844983,
        "relative_strength": 2.316052,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.437133,
        "energy": 37.853771,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 66.0287,
        "volume": 86866,
        "typical_volume": 46398.35,
        "trend": 62.61884,
        "fair_value": 50.014065,
        "relative_strength": 3.993712,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.227833,
        "energy": 29.568312,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 64.89,
        "volume": 55706,
        "typical_volume": 45754.1,
        "trend": 62.876469,
        "fair_value": 50.177585,
        "relative_strength": 0.938858,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.27669,
        "energy": 20.13254,
        "activity_lines": [
          65.757,
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          64.5443
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 65.1931,
        "volume": 51315,
        "typical_volume": 45504.4,
        "trend": 63.106137,
        "fair_value": 50.341977,
        "relative_strength": -2.13864,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.819298,
        "energy": 21.92401,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}