{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f4442d0-02df-4e2a-9426-2e3f79235bca", "symbol": "EQQQ", "name": "Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.802, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.719, "architecture_energy": 29.958, "architecture_maturity": 68.528, "architecture_confidence": 89.613, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.98, "rotation_up": 28.92, "upward_expansion": 58.69, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 31.77, "downward_expansion": 20.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 705.493327, 711.589384, 709.261515, 688.85651 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 726.299988, "trend_reference": 663.834056, "distance_from_trend": 0.094099, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 521.018054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394002, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.737411, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.192173, "excess_performance": 0.10929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094099, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05313, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394002, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027374, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.192173, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.068809, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92607, "relative_activity": 1.67489, "balance": 2.068809, "dry_up": 1.286597, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033971, "annualized_volatility": 0.19991, "from_high_reference": -0.024581, "from_low_reference": 0.295787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 663.834056, "fair_value_reference": 521.018054, "structural_low": 563.423952, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007967, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012649, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.105979, "worst_return": -0.089474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078957, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.030607, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.148194, "worst_return": -0.076084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.159252, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.085234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224163, "worst_return": -0.028859, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066396, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069922, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.076816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019399, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": 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41.089828, "activity_lines": [ 716.919995, 722.098844, 702.741489, 680.388518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 694.0, "volume": 37055, "typical_volume": 51683.35, "trend": 658.450914, "fair_value": 516.680645, "relative_strength": -0.295336, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.547126, "energy": 29.648234, "activity_lines": [ 707.586662, 716.626837, 704.565215, 682.835328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 686.0, "volume": 54989, "typical_volume": 52633.55, "trend": 660.520754, "fair_value": 518.684517, "relative_strength": -1.557628, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.090858, "energy": 26.705413, "activity_lines": [ 698.799996, 710.102502, 705.204792, 684.612688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 726.299988, "volume": 92607, "typical_volume": 55291.4, "trend": 663.834056, "fair_value": 521.018054, "relative_strength": 2.737411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.719123, "energy": 29.957886, "activity_lines": [ 705.493327, 711.589384, 709.261515, 688.85651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }