{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f488a21-606e-46e2-9d00-8a9c71690824", "symbol": "EMBJ", "name": "Embraer S.A.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.967, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 57.98, "architecture_energy": 68.859, "architecture_maturity": 16.846, "architecture_confidence": 73.29, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.03, "rotation_up": 75.38, "upward_expansion": 63.77, "deceleration": 21.26, "rotation_down": 16.81, "downward_expansion": 22.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.49, 66.128383, 63.404072, 63.102679 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 73.01, "trend_reference": 64.293612, "distance_from_trend": 0.135572, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.867285, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.743844, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.717046, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035126, "excess_performance": -0.090499, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135572, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002162, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.743844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174219, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03717, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150582, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035126, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.76272, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5597680, "relative_activity": 0.810939, "balance": 2.76272, "dry_up": 0.761707, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057893, "annualized_volatility": 0.421814, "from_high_reference": -0.089987, "from_low_reference": 0.367788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.293612, "fair_value_reference": 41.867285, "structural_low": 53.378157, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.144349, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.099821, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144349, "worst_return": 0.144349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.117322, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117322, "worst_return": 0.117322, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.788698, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.617485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.788698, "worst_return": 0.788698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 64.09, "volume": 3821764, "typical_volume": 7460735.05, "trend": 64.083045, "fair_value": 40.828271, "relative_strength": -4.950272, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.965867, "energy": 27.433297, "activity_lines": [ 64.292069, 62.046163, 61.16167, 62.209444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.93, "volume": 4614009, "typical_volume": 7354124.35, "trend": 64.11554, "fair_value": 41.146567, "relative_strength": -3.403935, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.85614, "energy": 36.616902, "activity_lines": [ 64.719571, 62.890928, 61.576653, 62.264086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.33, "volume": 6997922, "typical_volume": 7091869.75, "trend": 64.226263, "fair_value": 41.493661, "relative_strength": 0.543558, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.350172, "energy": 49.854136, "activity_lines": [ 65.984667, 64.183706, 62.298124, 62.535987 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.01, "volume": 5597680, "typical_volume": 6902710.3, "trend": 64.293612, "fair_value": 41.867285, "relative_strength": 3.717046, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.979622, "energy": 68.859074, "activity_lines": [ 68.49, 66.128383, 63.404072, 63.102679 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }