{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f4b627f-5159-42fe-a301-f1f36ce1039d", "symbol": "STAX", "name": "NOMURA TAX-FREE USA SHORT TERM ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.255, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.936, "architecture_energy": 17.058, "architecture_maturity": 19.997, "architecture_confidence": 40.004, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.95, "rotation_up": 23.04, "upward_expansion": 12.36, "deceleration": 59.1, "rotation_down": 48.58, "downward_expansion": 42.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.31095, 25.337874, 25.332771, 25.333114 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.355, "trend_reference": 25.334809, "distance_from_trend": 0.000797, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.418409, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038356, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.451609, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000779, "excess_performance": -0.126403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000797, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000779, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.037585, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10323, "relative_activity": 0.453759, "balance": 6.037585, "dry_up": 0.462572, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003426, "annualized_volatility": 0.016136, "from_high_reference": -0.006532, "from_low_reference": 0.020529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.334809, "fair_value_reference": 24.418409, "structural_low": 25.187311, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022954, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001504, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006776, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000865, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004185, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 23.319292, "volume": 1636, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 23.372775, "volume": 2206, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 23.467087, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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-7.321174, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.167836, "energy": 5.996267, "activity_lines": [ 25.330612, 25.352211, 25.334785, 25.335486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.266, "volume": 9159, "typical_volume": 22296.6, "trend": 25.33095, "fair_value": 24.411719, "relative_strength": -7.951894, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.963795, "energy": 22.112943, "activity_lines": [ 25.302446, 25.337274, 25.329279, 25.331562 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.355, "volume": 10323, "typical_volume": 22749.95, "trend": 25.334809, "fair_value": 24.418409, "relative_strength": -10.451609, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.935685, "energy": 17.057662, "activity_lines": [ 25.31095, 25.337874, 25.332771, 25.333114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }