{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f4d41e6-70ee-40b0-995d-f317683a365b", "symbol": "HOT", "name": "HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.753, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.612, "architecture_energy": 22.623, "architecture_maturity": 51.778, "architecture_confidence": 82.36, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.25, "rotation_up": 18.12, "upward_expansion": 45.03, "deceleration": 83.65, "rotation_down": 42.15, "downward_expansion": 34.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 453.880003, 466.401819, 473.76414, 459.420856 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 459.0, "trend_reference": 435.726599, "distance_from_trend": 0.053413, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 198.935316, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.307283, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.238906, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.274847, "excess_performance": 0.1006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053413, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.307283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.994772, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052389, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.600184, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.274847, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105, "relative_activity": 2.097902, "balance": 0.733696, "dry_up": 1.533467, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056276, "annualized_volatility": 0.46819, "from_high_reference": -0.168478, "from_low_reference": 1.274556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 435.726599, "fair_value_reference": 198.935316, "structural_low": 357.481279, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.076295, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.043595, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.209635, "worst_return": -0.045062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.167391, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.065265, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.428318, "worst_return": -0.145478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.34334, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.302265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.609252, "worst_return": -0.162344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02193, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076229, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.344037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005096, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", 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"relative_strength": 11.69246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.362006, "energy": 38.60713, "activity_lines": [ 486.293335, 490.08, 475.375754, 452.41242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 456.0, "volume": 118, "typical_volume": 48.1, "trend": 424.08698, "fair_value": 191.819582, "relative_strength": 11.957948, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.663173, "energy": 22.397175, "activity_lines": [ 474.833335, 482.725454, 475.696573, 454.745068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 448.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 47.3, "trend": 428.083237, "fair_value": 194.16772, "relative_strength": 7.630107, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.591622, "energy": 21.443985, "activity_lines": [ 462.893333, 475.616362, 475.047789, 456.313649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 449.200012, "volume": 84, "typical_volume": 48.4, "trend": 431.955075, "fair_value": 196.525965, "relative_strength": 6.898333, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.123007, "energy": 20.627099, "activity_lines": [ 455.02667, 469.927274, 474.12014, 457.676022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 459.0, "volume": 105, "typical_volume": 50.05, "trend": 435.726599, "fair_value": 198.935316, "relative_strength": 5.238906, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.612066, "energy": 22.623473, "activity_lines": [ 453.880003, 466.401819, 473.76414, 459.420856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }