{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f526546-62de-4fe2-ae53-1c346a2c7abb", "symbol": "6112", "name": "Metaage Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.359, "architecture_energy": 9.994, "architecture_maturity": 12.706, "architecture_confidence": 54.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.93, "rotation_up": 44.5, "upward_expansion": 20.9, "deceleration": 33.56, "rotation_down": 24.72, "downward_expansion": 35.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.86, 43.045152, 43.054217, 43.242218 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.900002, "trend_reference": 43.528586, "distance_from_trend": 0.077453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.379421, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087183, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.798338, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133546, "excess_performance": -0.307826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077453, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02042, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087183, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152453, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157952, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133546, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.092192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3281216, "relative_activity": 0.768668, "balance": 1.092192, "dry_up": 0.719674, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076655, "annualized_volatility": 0.464377, "from_high_reference": -0.204853, "from_low_reference": 0.267568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.528586, "fair_value_reference": 51.379421, "structural_low": 37.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.013801, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.000895, "regime_survival": 0.607143, "best_return": 0.250461, "worst_return": -0.127992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.050938, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.001913, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.259939, "worst_return": -0.242109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.059138, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.08753, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.094151, "worst_return": 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014862, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": 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-57.515248, "energy": 43.535416, "activity_lines": [ 41.673069, 42.447669, 42.816314, 43.173743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.849998, "volume": 2348479, "typical_volume": 4296870.8, "trend": 43.462973, "fair_value": 51.634708, "relative_strength": -38.388204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.946212, "energy": 57.001669, "activity_lines": [ 40.710491, 41.729087, 42.39312, 42.86346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.900002, "volume": 5390607, "typical_volume": 4229737.45, "trend": 43.466284, "fair_value": 51.503859, "relative_strength": -27.949796, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.906338, "energy": 16.313442, "activity_lines": [ 42.214902, 42.3391, 42.675369, 43.020688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 46.900002, "volume": 3281216, "typical_volume": 4268704.9, "trend": 43.528586, "fair_value": 51.379421, "relative_strength": -27.798338, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.359357, "energy": 9.993715, "activity_lines": [ 43.86, 43.045152, 43.054217, 43.242218 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }